Central Asia & Russia: surpluses will emerge in w Kazakhstan & amu darya river

22 November 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through July 2023 indicates severe to exceptional deficits in western Kazakhstan near the Caspian Sea and deficits of lesser intensity northeast of the Aral Sea and in pockets of Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and eastern Tajikistan. Surpluses are forecast in northern Kazakhstan, eastern Kyrgyzstan, and from southern Kyrgyzstan into Tajikistan.

In Russia, deficits are forecast in parts of the Ural Mountains and regions east of the Urals with exceptional deficits in the Khanty-Mansi and Yamal-Nenets regions. The southern portion of the Evenk region, as well as most of the Krasnoyarsk, Tomsk, Kemerovo, and Chukot regions are expected to experience exceptional surpluses. Similarly, the central region of Chita can expect surpluses.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through January 2023 for Asian Russia indicates that exceptional surpluses in Krasnoyarsk, Tomsk, and Kemerovo will increase slightly, and increase in size and severity in neighboring areas. Intense deficits are forecast east of the central Ural Mountains and spanning the Gulf of Ob in the north. Deficits will increase around the southern half of Lake Baikal. Intense surpluses are forecast in the Upper Page 21 of 29 Lena River region and deficits in the Lower Lena and Delta. In Central Asia, deficits in western Kazakhstan will retreat as surpluses emerge. Deficits will increase in northeastern Kazakhstan and surpluses are expected in pockets of the south. Surpluses are also forecast in Uzbekistan, exceptional surpluses on the Amu Darya River, and pockets in Turkmenistan. In Kyrgyzstan, surpluses of varying intensity are forecast with exceptional anomalies in the south leading through central Tajikistan. Deficits are expected in eastern Tajikistan.

The forecast from February to April indicates near-normal conditions in Central Asia with some surpluses in far northern and southeastern Kazakhstan, and eastern and southern Kyrgyzstan through central Tajikistan. Moderate deficits are forecast in southern Mangystau in western Kazakhstan. In Russia, surpluses will persist in Krasnoyarsk, Tomsk, and Kemerovo, and from the Upper Lena River region to the Upper Alden River. Deficits will persist east of the Urals in Sverdlovsk, downgrade somewhat across the Gulf of Ob, and shrink near southern Baikal.

The forecast for the final quarter – May through July – indicates moderate deficits in pockets of Turkmenistan and Mangystau, and surpluses in eastern Kyrgyzstan. In Russia, surpluses will persist in Krasnoyarsk, Tomsk, and Kemerovo.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan have formally resolved a border demarcation issue through an agreement that establishes joint management of the Kempir-Abad water reservoir. The reservoir is a critical water source in the fertile Fergana Valley that extends into both nations as well as into Tajikistan. The impending deal prompted civic protests in recent months that resulted in some arrests, and residents of both nations remain unsettled by the decision.

Feed stocks are low in Kazakhstan’s Mangystau region after the 2021 drought, a situation the government plans to address by providing supplemental wheat bran at a reduced price. The effort should help preserve livestock and poultry.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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