Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: intense Water deficits will emerge in N mexico

22 November 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending July 2023 indicates water deficits of varying intensity coast-to-coast throughout central Mexico. Though mild to moderate in many areas, anomalies will be more intense in some pockets including San Luis Potosi, Puebla, and Michoacan.

Deficits are also forecast in northern Baja, the conjoined borders of Chihuahua, Coahuila, and Durango in the north, and the Yucatan.

Intense surpluses are forecast in northern Baja California Sur and across the Gulf of California in central Sonora. A pocket of surpluses is forecast in southern Durango.

Much of Central America can expect surpluses. Anomalies will be severe overall and of even greater intensity in some regions including central Panama and the Canal. Cuba and the central Bahamas will also see surpluses. Some pockets of moderate deficit are forecast in Haiti.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through January 2023 indicates widespread, exceptional deficits in northern Mexico at the intersection of Chihuahua, Coahuila, and Durango, and intense deficits from Tamaulipas and southern Nuevo Leon through Puebla and Veracruz. deficits are also expected in the Yucatan, pockets in the central Pacific states, and southern Baja. Areas of Surpluses include Sonora, northern Baja California Sur, and southern Durango. In Central America, Surpluses will shrink and downgrade somewhat but remain widespread with extreme anomalies in Guatemala and Honduras. Surpluses will persist in Cuba and the central Bahamas. A few small pockets of deficit will persist in Haiti.

From February through April, widespread exceptional deficits will emerge in Mexico’s central Pacific states reaching into landlocked states in the center of the nation. Intense deficits are also forecast in southern Baja, Puebla, and Campeche in the Yucatan. deficits in the nation’s north will downgrade but intense pockets will persist. Surpluses will linger in Sonora, shrink somewhat in Central America, and persist in Cuba and the central Bahamas.

The forecast for the final three months – May through July – indicates near-normal conditions overall with some pockets of surpluses in Mexico’s mainland northwest, a few deficits in Baja and Coahuila, and surpluses in Cuba.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Sixteen Indigenous Zapotec communities in Mexico have created over 579 water infrastructure projects, including absorption wells, small dams, and water pans to conserve water in the Oaxaca Valley, an area frequently impacted by droughts. Though harvesting water has been somewhat successful, farmers still struggle to have enough water due to lack of rain. One member of the Zapotec community remarked that years ago, well water was easily drawn from reservoirs more than 10 feet deep and full of water, without the use of pumps.

Farmers in Cuba are also facing problematic water anomalies impacting their harvests. Intense water surpluses from the rainy summer season are becoming increasingly longer and wetter, lowering crop yields. One farmer reports black bean production dropping by 70%. These water anomalies cause other problems, including reduced fish stocks and flooding of homes. As a result, many Cubans are leaving the island, with American authorities reporting nearly 221,000 Cubans on the U.S.-Mexico border in fiscal year 2022; a 471% increase from the year before, according to U.S. Customs and Border Protection.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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