Canada: Deficits persist in provinces’ northern regions

22 December 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in August 2023 indicates significant water anomalies in multiple areas of Canada, including British Columbia, Manitoba, Nunavut, Northwest Territories, and Ontario.

Exceptional deficits are expected in the following areas:

Central British Columbia, surrounding regions near Williston Lake.
Central and northern Manitoba, in regions about Lake Winnipeg and along the coast of Hudson Bay.
Northeastern Ontario, arcing through Attawapiskat, Kashechewan, Moonsonee, and surrounding regions along the coast of the Hudson Bay. Its northwestern region can also expect intense deficits near the Opasquia Provincial Park, as well as southeast in Ottawa.
Central Quebec, from the Belcher Islands into the regions along the coast of the Hudson Bay. Deficits also appear between the border of eastern Quebec and western Newfoundland.
Western Northwest Territories, along the Mackenzie River.
Southeastern Nunavut, throughout and north of Southampton Island into the Inuit Owned Lands and the southern regions of Baffin Island.

Severe to extreme deficits can be expected in:

Central Alberta, to the east of Lesser Slave Lake.

Moderate deficits are forecast in:

Central Ontario, west of the James Bay.
Northeastern Saskatchewan, in regions northwest of Wollaston Lake.
Northern Alberta, north of the Peace River, as well as southern Alberta, near Calgary.
Nunavut, throughout the Kivalliq region and northern Baffin Island.
Eastern Yukon, near the border of Alberta.
Eastern regions of Northwest Territories.

Exceptional surpluses are anticipated in:

Northern Northwest Territories, throughout the Inuvialuit Lands.
Northwest Saskatchewan, in regions south of Lake Athabasca.
Southeast to central Yukon, near the Champagne and Aishihik First Nations, spreading northeast into the First Nation of Nacho Nyak Dun, and the Tetlit Gwich'in Tribal Council.
Northwest British Columbia, near Glacier Bay National Park.
Northern Nunavut, along the region’s northern coast of the Northwest Passage.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through February 2023 anticipates exceptional deficits in northern British Columbia and severe to exceptional deficits in the south and in central Alberta, central Saskatchewan, southeast Yukon, western Northwest Territories, and northern Ontario. Exceptional deficits are expected to persist in central Manitoba as well as eastern and southeastern Ontario and southwestern Quebec. Similarly intense deficits can be expected in eastern Quebec, spreading into western Newfoundland. Intense surpluses are forecast to persist in eastern Northwest Territories into northwest Saskatchewan, and along Nunavut’s northern coast of the Northwest Passage. Surpluses are also forecast in Ontario northeast of Lake Superior.

From March through May 2023, intense anomalies are expected to further decrease in severity, with exception for central British Columbia, and regions of central and northeast Manitoba extending into southeastern Nunavut. Southwestern and eastern Quebec can anticipate similar lingering exceptional deficits, spreading into western Newfoundland. Exceptional surpluses in southeastern Northwestern Territories and Nunavut’s northern coastal regions are expected to remain.

The forecast for the final months – June through August 2023 – anticipates further decreases in severity of anomalies, with some persisting, such as deficits in central and northeastern Manitoba, as well as northeastern Ontario. Surpluses are expected to endure in northwestern Saskatchewan, southeastern and northern Northwest Territories, along with Nunavut’s northern coastal regions.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Staff at Mount Washington Alpine Resort, a popular ski resort on Vancouver Island, are prompting guests to bring their own drinking water due to the area experiencing its worst drought in 15 years. As local reservoirs on the mountain are at a record low, officials also ask that visitors conserve water by refraining from filling pools or hot tubs with local water. Officials stated that the mountain's water refill stations will be shut off, and that local restaurants will be given disposable utensils and plates to conserve water while washing dishes.

Christmas tree farms across Canada are reporting dwindling supplies, with the Canadian Christmas Tree Association citing climate change as one of the main causes. Throughout the continent, farms are experiencing prolonged drought and extreme heat, putting the supply of trees at risk. The trees’ seedlings are particularly vulnerable to water anomalies, as they have shallow roots which cannot reach beyond the dry surface layers of soil. In Langley, British Columbia, the Fernridge Christmas Tree Forest notes that though its farm can grow up to 18,000 trees, the extreme heat is depleting the trees’ health. Farmers noted that the warmer weather is also causing more activity among pests, putting trees already weakened by the drought at an even higher risk of death.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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