Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: surpluses persisting in Central America, NW Mexico

22 December 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in August 2023 indicates exceptional water anomalies in Panama and Cuba, with moderate to extreme anomalies in Mexico and Central America.

Areas experiencing severe to exceptional surpluses include:

Northwestern Mexico, primarily in Sonora and central Baja.
Northern Cuba, with concentrations in the city of Matanzas and surrounding areas. Eastern Cuban cities Camagüey, Las Tunas, Holguín, Granma, and Santiago de Cuba can expect similar activity.
Central Panama.
Portions of the Bahamas.

Surpluses of varying intensity are expected in the following areas:

Western Mexico, in southern Durango.
Belize, widespread across Corozal to northern Toledo.
Guatemala, with most intense occurrences in Retalhuleu, Zacapa, southern Izabal, and Chiquimula. Surrounding areas Peten, western El Progreso, Baja Verapaz, eastern San Marcos, and Quetzaltenango can anticipate surpluses of similar intensity.
Honduras, expected to experience widespread surpluses throughout the country, with the most intense occurring in western to central Olancho.
Nicaragua, with extreme surpluses expected to occur throughout the region. However, normal conditions to mild surpluses are forecast for Atlantico Norte.
Northern Costa Rica, with the most intense surplus occurring in southern Alajeula and western Guanacaste.
The islands of Saint Lucia, France, and Dominica in the Caribbean.

Moderate to extreme deficits can be expected in:

Central Mexico, with pockets of exceptional deficits in Queretaro, central Puebla, and southeastern Michoacan. Yucatan, Quintana Roo, and Campeche can also expect intense deficits.
Haiti, occurring in northern and southwestern regions, including Nord-Ouest and Grand’Anse.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through February 2023 anticipates intense surpluses to persist throughout Cuba and Panama, as well as in southern Durango, Mexico. Extreme to exceptional surpluses are forecast to continue in Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Costa Rica.

Mexico can expect to experience widespread moderate deficits with pockets of intense deficit in its north-central and central regions, and Campeche.

From March through May 2023, exceptional deficits will emerge in western Mexico, with northern and central Mexico expected to experience mild to moderate deficits, with some areas of normal conditions. Surpluses in Central America are expected to persist and remain at extreme to severe intensity, with exceptional surpluses lingering in Cuba. Moderate surpluses will also persist in southern Durango.

The forecast for the final months – June through August 2023 – indicates normal conditions in Mexico overall with mild to moderate surpluses in the northwest, and mild to moderate deficits in southern regions, and in small pockets of Central America, though some areas of surplus will linger.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Guatemala is currently experiencing some of its most intense flooding in decades, with over 6.1 million people being directly affected, according to CONRED, the country’s disaster relief agency. Water surpluses have destroyed crops, displaced residents, and killed almost 70 people in 2022. Guatemalan farmers are witnessing major losses in production and export crops, such as maize, beans, coffee, and cardamom. It is estimated that around 4.6 million Guatemalans are at risk of food insecurity due to these shortages. The village of Las Morenas has observed worsening floods in recent years, resulting in destruction of local farmers' crops and displacement of residents. 2022 is worse than previous years, one resident states, with multiple floods occurring this year, most recently in September in areas near the Ocosito River.

The La Niña weather phenomena has worsened existing water scarcity in northern Mexico, in areas already stricken with drought. According to Mexico’s National Meteorological Service, La Niña has now entered a third year of affecting the region, and is expected to remain until February 2023. Earlier this year, SADM, the water utility company of Monterrey, was met with protests when it announced plans to redirect up to 500 liters of water per second towards the city, and away from areas in Northern Mexico already experiencing drought.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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