South Asia: Intense surplus in Pakistan to persist

South Asia: Intense surplus in Pakistan to persist

23 December 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in August 2023 projects surpluses of varying intensity in many regions of South Asia and scattered moderate to exceptional deficits.

Severe to exceptional surplus is expected in:

  • Much of southern to central Pakistan, spreading across the border into western India.

  • Southeastern Afghanistan, in regions along the border of Pakistan.

  • Central, western, and far northern India, with the highest intensities in Karnataka, central Rajasthan, and Jammu and Kashmir.

  • Central Nepal.

  • Southern Bangladesh, along the coast of the Bay of Bengal.

  • Southwestern coastal regions of Sri Lanka.

Deficits are forecast in:

  • Eastern and far northeastern India reaching extreme intensity in the state of Bihar and exceptional intensity in Assam.

  • Southern India, with moderate to severe anomalies in southern Tamil Nadu.

  • Western into northwestern Afghanistan, with intense deficits in western Herat Province.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through February 2023 indicates that exceptional surpluses in central and southern Pakistan will become transitional conditions. Intense surpluses are forecast from northern Pakistan through India’s far north and throughout Nepal and Bangladesh. Eastern Afghanistan can expect surpluses of similar intensity. Widespread surpluses will persist in central India and intense surpluses in western Maharashtra and central Karnataka. Moderate deficits will emerge in northern Rajasthan.

From March through May 2023, transitional conditions in much of southern Pakistan will revert to exceptional surplus. Central India is forecast to experience moderate to severe surpluses, with exceptional surpluses persisting in western Maharashtra and Karnataka. Surpluses will downgrade in Nepal and shrink and downgrade in Bangladesh. Moderate to severe deficits are forecast in India’s far northeast.

The forecast for the final months – June through August 2023 – indicates that exceptional surpluses in southern to central Pakistan will persist. Much of India will experience normal conditions with some areas of intense surplus in Karnataka and far northern India. Deficits will intensify in India’s far northeast, and surpluses are expected on the Gandaki River in Nepal. 

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
This year, severe floods in Pakistan have caused nearly 1,700 deaths, as well as damage to housing, agriculture, and infrastructure. The World Bank recently approved $1.69 billion to assist with relief projects in Sindh, the province most affected by recent flooding. In addition to reconstruction assistance, the World Bank also intends to strengthen and reform institutions and governance structures, as stated by Najy Benhassine, World Bank Country Director for Pakistan.

Sugarcane farmers in India are now struggling to produce crops due to scarce rainfall between June and September 2022. As India is the largest producer and consumer of sugar in the world, sugar accounts for roughly 10% of the country’s agricultural output. 50 million farmers and their dependents rely on production of these crops for their livelihoods. Additionally, India experienced an extreme heatwave earlier this year, recording the hottest temperatures in March in the last 122 years, further worsening local agriculture and endangering residents. Some areas including Maharashtra and the Banda district in Uttar Pradesh reported temperatures of over 46 C, and a 55% increase in heat-related deaths of people over 65 from 2000-2004 to 2017-2021.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

Subscribe to our monthly Water Watch List

Search blog categories

Search blog tags

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

For more information contact info@isciences.com.

Copyright 2022 ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List is the property of ISCIENCES, L.L.C. It is protected by U.S. copyright laws and may not be reproduced in any way without the written permission of ISCIENCES, L.L.C. The user assumes the entire risk related to its use of information on ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Web pages, including information derived from Water Security Indicators Model (WSIM). This information may include forecasts, projections and other predictive statements that represent ISCIENCES, L.L.C.’s assumptions and expectations in light of currently available information and using the highest professional standards. Actual results may differ from those projected. Consequently, no guarantee is presented or implied as to the accuracy of specific forecasts, projections or predictive statements contained herein. ISCIENCES, L.L.C. provides such information "as is," and disclaims any and all warranties, whether express or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will ISCIENCES, L.L.C. be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data.