Africa: Surpluses continue S of the Sahel

28 December 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in August 2023 indicates exceptional water anomalies throughout the northern regions of the continent, with intense deficits in the north and surpluses in a band along the southern edge of the Sahel.

Exceptional deficits are expected in:

Central to northern Mauritania, spreading across its western coast to southern Tiris Zemmour, northern Tagant, and widespread throughout the Adrar Region.
Much of Algeria, throughout much of the Adrar, Tamanghasset, and Illizi regions. Transitional conditions are expected, too, in the Naama, El Bayadh, Ghardaia, and northern Bechar regions.
Western and southeastern Libya, widespread throughout the Ghadamis, Ghat, and Al Kufrah regions.
Western through central Egypt, spanning much of the New Valley Governorate, with pockets reaching to the coast of the Red Sea.
Northern Morocco and surrounding areas along the country’s North Atlantic coast.
Southern Republic of the Congo.
Countries in the Horn of Africa, including Djibouti, Somaliland, and Somalia. These areas can anticipate pockets of extreme to exceptional deficit, with transitional conditions near Somaliland and Somalia’s borders.

Moderate to severe deficits are anticipated in:

Northern Mali.
Northern Niger, in the northern Agadez Region.
Central Libya.
Sudan’s northern corners.
Southern Gabon, with the most intense deficits in Ngounie province, spreading to coastal areas.
Democratic Republic of the Congo, in the northern Congo River Basin and a pocket in the south.
Eastern Central African Republic (CAR), in the Haute-Kotto and Haut-Mbomou prefectures.
Northern Mozambique, in Niassa Province.
South Africa, in Western Cape’s western region and along the nation’s southern coast into Eastern Cape.
Southwestern Namibia, along the western coast of Karas Region.
Northwestern Angola.
Sierra Leone.

Surpluses are forecast in:

Northern to eastern Burkina Faso.
Central Mali.
Northern Ghana and pockets in Togo and Benin.
Northern Nigeria, with surpluses expected to stretch along the country’s northern cities, beginning in Sokoto, heading east to the state of Borno.
Southeastern Cameroon.
Much of Chad.
Southern Sudan, in South Kordofan State.
Northern Tanzania, with intense surpluses throughout the Kagera Region.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through February 2023 predicts that exceptional deficits in northern Africa will downgrade overall. A few areas of exceptional anomalies may persist in Western Sahara, Mauritania, and northern Mali. Deficits will intensify in southeastern Nigeria and north-central Sudan, and downgrade in the Horn of Africa and DRC.

Much of the southern Sahel can expect intense surpluses to persist, throughout Burkina Faso and southern Niger, becoming widespread throughout Chad. Southern regions in Sudan can expect similar surpluses. Other regions with a forecast of surplus include west-central Tanzania, and pockets of South Africa in southeastern Northern Cape and in Gauteng Province.

From March through May 2023, intense deficits are expected to emerge in Egypt and northern Sudan. Surpluses will persist from Burkina Faso through northern Nigeria, much of Chad, and southern Sudan. Anomalies will be extreme to exceptional in Chad.

The forecast for the final months – June through August 2023 – anticipates intense deficits throughout western and southern Egypt and into northern Sudan and southeastern Libya, with pockets of similar intensity in Algeria and northern Niger.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Regions in the Horn of Africa are experiencing sickness, food scarcity, and mass displacement due to record-breaking drought, which is expected to worsen over the next few months. According to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, the current drought has exceeded previous disastrous droughts in both length and severity, including the area’s droughts of 2010-2011 and 2016-2017. Somalia is the most affected country, with 24,000 residents leaving to seek shelter in Kenya’s Dadaab refugee camps since September. With more refugees than shelter, an outbreak of cholera has worsened the situation, affecting more than 350 people since October. It is estimated by the Famine Early Warning Systems Network that local individuals experiencing food insecurity will be 70 percent higher than those in need during the 2016-2017 food crisis.

Areas in Chad’s capital, N’Djamena, are currently underwater as a result of major flooding in the region since August. Though Chad experiences flooding every year, locals state that this year is much worse, causing mass displacement and scarcity of essential resources. The water levels in the nearby Chari and Logone rivers have dramatically increased, reaching 8.14 meters near their junction close to N’Djamena. The resulting floods from the rivers are attributed to higher intensity water surpluses in the area. According to the UN, over 155,000 people have been displaced from their homes in N’Djamena as of November 15th. People seeking refuge in nearby shelters are at risk for a multitude of health risks due to overcrowding and lack of access to clean water, food, and hygienic resources.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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