Europe: Deficits persist in Continental Europe, surpluses in UK, Ireland

28 December 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in August 2023 indicates widespread moderate to extreme deficits throughout continental Europe, with exceptional deficits in central Scandinavia, the Balkans, and the Baltic regions. Moderate to severe surpluses are expected in the United Kingdom, Ireland, northern Scandinavia, and European Russia.

Areas experiencing exceptional deficits include:

Central Sweden, primarily in Dalarna and southern Jamtland Counties.
Eastern Bulgaria, in regions along the coast of the Black Sea.
Estonia, widespread throughout much of the country.
Northeastern Spain, in the southeastern regions of Catalonia.

Moderate to severe deficits are expected in:

Central France, with the most intense deficits in the Limousin and Auvergne regions, as well as northern areas of the Midi-Pyrénées region.
Southern Spain, with widespread deficits throughout the Andalucia region, and exceptional deficits in its southeastern region.
Northern Germany, with severe deficits in southwestern Niedersachsen and western Sachsen-Anhalt.
Poland, with concentrated deficits in eastern West Pomeranian, southern Greater Poland, and northern Warmian-Masurian.
Northern Italy, spreading from the western border of Piemonte to southern Emilia-Romagna, and east into northern Veneto where anomalies could be exceptional.
Eastern Czech Republic.
Central to eastern Netherlands.
Southern Sweden, becoming exceptional in Halland Country.
Latvia, widespread severe deficits along with pockets of greater intensity.
The tundra region of northern European Russia, with a few more intense pockets.

Moderate to severe surpluses are expected in:

Southern Norway. Surpluses of varying intensity are forecast from Arctic Norway into Murmansk Oblast in Russia.
Russia, east of Lake Onega and in the eastern Volga River Watershed.
Northern Romania.
Northern Sweden, in Norrbotten County.
Ireland, with moderate surpluses overall but more intense anomalies in County Kerry.
Central areas of the United Kingdom, including the Dumfries and Galloway and Scottish Borders council areas, and Cumbria where surpluses could be extreme to exceptional. Moderate surpluses are forecast in South East England.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through February 2023 predicts severe to exceptional deficits in central France, northern Germany, central and southern Sweden, and the Baltics. Pockets across northern Italy can expect deficits of similar intensity.

Surpluses are expected throughout much of Ireland and the United Kingdom, southern and Arctic Norway, northern Sweden, Murmansk, several regions in European Russia including the Don and Volga Watersheds, eastern Belarus, northern Ukraine, and Romania. Areas near the borders of France and Portugal are expected to experience some pockets of moderate surplus, moderate surpluses are forecast from Switzerland and central Austria.

From March through May 2023, deficits of varying intensity, including exceptional anomalies, are expected in the Baltics, central and southern Sweden, Poland, northern Germany, and conjoined regions of Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, and Austria. Other regions with a forecast of deficit include eastern Bulgaria, southern Ukraine, central France, and parts of northern Italy. Surpluses, primarily moderate, are forecast in pockets of the U.K., and in Switzerland, southern and Arctic Norway, Murmansk, Chernihiv Oblast in northern Ukraine, and several regions in European Russia.

The forecast for the final months – June through August 2023 – anticipates moderate deficits scattered across Continental Europe, with intense deficits in central Sweden and Estonia. Much of the United Kingdom can expect normal conditions.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
During a major drought in the Czech Republic, sandstones with etchings dating back to the 19th century emerged along the Elbe and Rhine rivers. Dubbed “hunger stones,” the markings on these stones were made by locals to record the effects of drought, which read “if you see me, then weep” in German. Stones appeared in Děčín, as well as German cities Leverkusen and Worms, where inscriptions date mostly from the 19th and 20th centuries. These stones highlight locals’ dependence on the river for food production and trading.

Climatologists at Météo-France anticipate 2022 to be the hottest year recorded in France, since records began. In a briefing, climatologist Matthieu Sorel stated that even if December is very cold, it is a certainty that 2022 will be France’s hottest recorded year since at least 1900. Average temperatures for this year are estimated between 14.2 and 14.6 degrees Celsius, a notable increase from 2020’s record of 14.07 degrees Celsius. Annual rainfall is expected to measure 25 percent lower than normal, near France’s driest year on record, 1989, which saw the same deficit in rainfall, 25 percent.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

Subscribe to our monthly Water Watch List

Search blog categories

Search blog tags