South America: Widespread deficits expected to weaken

28 December 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in August 2023 indicates significant deficits in Venezuela, Brazil, Bolivia, Chile, and southern Argentina, with anomalies of varying intensity appearing throughout the continent.

Exceptional deficits are expected in the following areas:

Northern Venezuela, spreading from west to east from Trujillo to central Anzoátegui.
Pockets throughout western and central Brazil, northwestern and southern Amazonas, southeastern Pará, Mato Grosso, and southern Tocantins.
Central to southern Bolivia, with deficits arcing from southern La Paz through Cochabamba, Chuquisaca, southern Potosi and Jujuy.
Southern Chile, widespread throughout the region, beginning in Coquimbo and spreading south along the coast into the Magallanes y la Antártica Chilena Region and Tierra del Fuego.
Southern Argentina, along the Deseado River.

Severe to extreme deficits are forecast for:

Central and southern Peru, near the Departments of Huánuco, Cusco, and Apurimac.
Central and northwestern Brazil, in eastern Pará, northeastern Mato Grosso, and southern to northwestern Amazonas.
Eastern Argentina, from the Salado River through Ciudad de Buenos Aires and the Rio de la Plata into southern Uruguay. The Falkland Islands can also expect similar deficits.
Western Colombia, in Chocó Department.

Extreme to exceptional surpluses are predicted in:

Northern Colombia, from northern Córdoba to Lake Maracaibo in Venezuela. Curacao can expect surpluses of similar intensity.
Trinidad and Tobago, with widespread surpluses throughout, continuing through the coastal areas of the Guianas.
Argentina, in Chubut Province's northeast and on the San Jorge Gulf in the southeast.

Moderate surpluses are anticipated in:

West-central Colombia, near the shared borders of Huila, Meta, and Caquetá, with pockets appearing in east Valle De Cauca.
Brazil, in pockets of the northern Amazonas, southern Pará, and in Brazil’s smaller, northeastern states.
Eastern Paraguay, from the Department of San Pedro into northern Alto Paraná.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through February 2023 anticipates exceptional deficits in northern Argentina and the Pampas to lessen, transitioning to normal conditions with some moderate to severe deficits in the eastern regions and in Uruguay. Exceptional deficits in northwestern Venezuela and central Chile are expected to persist, and pockets of similar intensity in Peru and western Brazil.

Widespread moderate to severe surpluses are anticipated in the northern regions of the continent, including northern Brazil, Colombia, southern Venezuela, northern Guyana, Suriname, and French Guiana. Intense deficits are expected in pockets throughout western and central-west Brazil and central and southern Peru.

From March through May 2023, most intense anomalies are expected to dissipate. Surpluses, primarily moderate, will linger in pockets of northern and western Brazil and other regions in northern South America. Moderate surpluses will emerge in eastern Peru.

The forecast for the final months – June through August 2023 – anticipates moderate to severe deficits in Suriname, French Guiana, northwestern Colombia, and eastern Brazil. Regions along Peru’s western coast are expected to experience moderate deficits, with a mixture of deficits and transitional conditions in Chile.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
On December 16th, Santiago, Chile saw forest fires burn through more than 17,000 acres throughout the country. These fires were exacerbated by the country’s prolonged drought and the city’s current heatwave. On the day of the forest fires, Santiago recorded 36.7 degrees Celsius (98.06°F), which was the city’s third-highest recorded temperature seen in 111 years. The fires led to evacuations due to public health concerns from the clouds of smoke, and firefighters fought over 20 fires throughout the country’s central and southern regions.

Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, a state that produces roughly 20% of Brazil’s first-season corn crop and 14% of its soybean crop, is projecting significantly less yields due to severe drought. Forecasts for the state’s 2022-2023 summer corn output anticipated 5.38 million tonnes, which was revised to 4.51 million tonnes following intense dryness throughout the area. Its soybean production is currently estimated at about 22 million tonnes, a significant increase from the prior season’s 11 million tonnes, which saw destruction of over almost half of the crop from prolonged lack of rain. Similarly in the 2021-2022 season, the region saw a significant decrease in summer corn output, from 5.76 million tonnes to 2.56 million tonnes.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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