Australia & New Zealand: Intense surpluses continue in SE Australia

Australia & New Zealand: Intense surpluses continue in SE Australia

29 December 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in August 2023 indicates significant surpluses in southeastern Australia, and small, isolated occurrences of significant deficits in southwestern Australia, Tasmania, and southern New Zealand.

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected in:

  • New South Wales, with the most intense anomalies occurring in the central regions, reaching east to the coast.

  • Victoria, covering much of its northern and central territories.

  • Southwestern Western Australia, throughout much of central New South Wales.

  • Northern New Zealand, in the northernmost area of Northland, along the coast of the Bay of Plenty, moving south into Hawke’s Bay.

Extreme to exceptional deficits are expected in:

  • Coastal areas in the southwestern tip of Western Australia.

  • Southwestern Tasmania, in nearby coastal regions.

  • Southern New Zealand, in Southland.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail

The forecast through February 2023 indicates that surpluses in southeastern Australia will persist, including exceptional anomalies in New South Wales. Surpluses in northern New Zealand are expected to remain, as are intense deficits and surpluses in southwestern Australia. Areas in eastern Tasmania are expected to experience moderate surpluses, while southern Tasmania can expect moderate to severe deficits. Also, exceptional deficits are anticipated southeast of Alice Springs.

From March through May 2023, intense surpluses are expected to continue throughout southeastern Australia, as well as extreme to exceptional deficits in central Australia. Coastal regions in southwestern Western Australia can expect moderate to severe deficits, with surpluses further inland.

The forecast for the final months – June through August 2023 – anticipates intense surpluses in southeastern Australia to linger, with pockets of exceptional deficits emerging in southwest Tasmania.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
The island village of Walker Flat in South Australia was evacuated during the holidays due to severe flooding from the Murray River. After numerous homes were isolated by multiple inundations, residents were urged to leave their homes on Christmas morning. Approximately 4,000 properties along the Murray River are expected to be affected by flooding, including an estimated 255 businesses and almost 10,000 acres of agricultural land. Earlier this week, activities such as boating, fishing, and swimming were banned due to safety concerns, with exceptions for individuals reliant on the river for work, and for transportation of food and other necessary provisions. 

In New Zealand, insurance claims due to extreme weather this year have reached $NZ123.8 million, equivalent to $117.6 million USD. The Insurance Council of New Zealand (ICNZ) reported that 11,086 claims were generated throughout the area in July through August, which included damages from the Nelson Tasman floods. The Nelson Tasman floods cost $NZ31.14 million, or $29.6 million USD, while other affected areas during the same time period totalled $NZ36.7 million, or $34.9 million USD. The constant extreme weather events throughout the country prompted the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) to declare this season as the area’s warmest and wettest winter on record.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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