East Asia: Intense deficits to persist in the Yangtze River Basin

East Asia: Intense deficits to persist in the Yangtze River Basin

29 December 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in August 2023 anticipates intense anomalies throughout East Asia, ranging from intense deficits in central and southern regions, to intense surpluses spanning from southwest to northeastern territories.

Exceptional surplus:

  • Northeast China, with the most intense anomalies appearing in pockets throughout Shanxi, Shandong, Liaoning, and Jilin.

  • Northern Shaanxi, China.

  • Western China, along the borders of Kyrgyzstan.

  • Central North Korea, particularly widespread in South Pyongan Province.

Extreme to exceptional deficits:

  • Northwest China, in central Xinjiang Uygur, northern Qinghai, Gansu, and western Inner Mongolia.

  • The Yangtze River Basin from southwestern Hubei through Guizhou; and eastern Sichuan.

  • Taiwan, in regions along its western coast.

Deficits of varying intensity:

  • Southeast China; and the Xilongol region of Inner Mongolia.

  • Several regions in Mongolia.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through February 2023 anticipates intense surpluses in Northeast China, The Shandong Peninsula and much of the North China Plain, the Ordos Loop, eastern Tibet (Xizang) and near the border with Nepal. Intense deficits can be expected to persist from Hubei through Guizhou and into Yunnan. Moderate surpluses will emerge in Southeast China, and deficits will emerge in southern Japan.

From March through May 2023, intense deficits are expected to persist from Hubei into Guizhou, shrinking overall. Surpluses in Northeast China will remain widespread, shrinking somewhat, but will remain intense in Liaoning and western Jilin. Intense surpluses will also persist in the North China Plain, Ordos Loop, and southwestern Tibet. Moderate deficits will emerge in northern Honshu, Japan, while normal conditions are expected elsewhere in the nation.

The forecast for the final months – June through August 2023 – predicts intense deficits in eastern Xinjiang and northern Qinghai, while deficits from Hubei to Guizhou retreat. Moderate deficits are forecast from Shaanxi into Sichuan. Surpluses near Nepal are expected to persist, as are pockets in Northeast China and the Ordos Loop. Surpluses will emerge in Yunnan.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
On December 23rd, the Tokyo Metropolitan Government released a disaster resilience plan to strengthen infrastructure against several natural disaster scenarios, including water-related crises, such as flooding, heavy rains, and typhoons. Tokyo is estimated to experience 1.1 times more rainfall in the 2040s, with sea levels rising approximately 0.6 meters, prompting officials to upgrade the capital’s infrastructure to withstand these events. Plans for resistance against heavy rain are especially important following the damage inflicted by Typhoon Hagbis in September 2019, which filled the city’s Kandagawa underground reservoir to 91%. City officials plan to expand reservoir capacity from 1.28 million to 1.5 million cubic meters in 2030, build higher levees, and to implement the use of AI to more accurately predict water levels. 

China recently implemented a similar plan to improve the nation’s water security, as demand for water is expected to surpass 800 billion cubic meters by 2030. The program was created in an effort to strengthen several aspects of China’s water security by 2025, including infrastructure resilience against floods and droughts, improved ecological protection of water resources, and promotion of water conservation practices. Due to the region’s current drought, rapid socioeconomic development, and growing population, China faces a water supply gap that some scholars estimate could reach 25 percent by 2030.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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