United States: Intense deficits persist in Midwestern states

23 January 2023

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in September 2024 anticipates exceptional deficits in the Pacific Northwest and Upper Midwest and intense surpluses in western and northeastern states to mostly dissipate. Extreme to exceptional deficits will still remain in pockets throughout the Midwest.

Extreme to exceptional deficits are expected in the following areas:

Southern Louisiana, in areas near the cities of New Orleans and Baton Rouge. These deficits continue further north into pockets of eastern Arkansas, western and southern Mississippi, western Alabama, and throughout the majority of western Tennessee.
Most of western Ohio, spreading further into much of central Indiana and in southern regions of Illinois, east of Highland Silver Lake. Similarly intense deficits are expected to appear in pockets throughout Minnesota, in areas west and east of Leech Lake Reservation.
Northeastern Wisconsin, in areas near the Menominee Reservation. These deficits continue into northern Michigan, throughout the Upper Peninsula, as well as in areas of the Upper Lower Peninsula, near Traverse City.
Nevada, in pockets throughout the northwestern, central, and southern regions of the state.
Western Utah, appearing in western regions of Juab County. Similarly intense deficits are expected to occur in western Montana, throughout the Flathead Reservation and west of Flathead Lake.

Moderate to severe surpluses are expected in the following regions:

Florida, throughout regions within the Aucilla Wildlife Management Area, moving north into southern Georgia near the city of Valdosta.
Western Connecticut, in regions north of the city of Danbury.
Alaska, throughout central regions of the Northwest Arctic Borough.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through March 2024 anticipated exceptional deficits to expand in size across much of western Tennessee, northern Mississippi, western Kentucky, and central Indiana. Exceptional deficits are expected to continue into western to southwestern regions of Ohio. Northernmost regions of Maine can expect similarly intense deficits. Further west, severe to extreme deficits are expected to occur in much of northern Minnesota, as well as in west-central Colorado, in most areas near the Grand Mesa, Uncompahgre and Gunnison National Forests, continuing south into northern New Mexico into the Jicarilla Apache Nation Reservation.

From April through June 2024, extreme to exceptional deficits are expected to arise in northern Idaho and western Montana. Deficits of equivalent intensity are expected to continue in western Minnesota, near the White Earth Reservation. In Wisconsin, deficits of similar magnitude are expected to occur near the Menominee Reservation in the town of Keshena. Moderate to severe surpluses are anticipated to occur in southeastern Florida, western Puerto Rico, several regions of Alaska, including the Seward Peninsula, northern portions of the North Slope Borough, and the Copper River Census Area.

The forecast for the final months – July 2024 through September 2024 – anticipates exceptional deficits in northern Idaho and western Montana to subside, becoming mostly moderate to severe deficits in both states. Similar deficits appear nearby throughout central and northern Washington. Further east, moderate to severe deficits are expected to linger in Michigan’s Upper Peninsula.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Communities of the Shenandoah Valley suffered through intense dry conditions this summer. Mark Frondorf, the Riverkeeper of the Shenandoah River for the Potomac Riverkeeper Network, stated that compared to data collected in the area over the last 130 years, the counties that depend on the Shenandoah River were experiencing major water shortages. Clarke County, Virginia had its fifth driest year on record, and Rockingham County, the largest agricultural county in the Commonwealth, recorded its eighth driest year. Frondorf said he anticipates the summer of 2024 to hold even more severe water shortages.

Though earlier warnings of an early season snow drought were announced earlier this month, storms have begun replenishing snowpack in the Sierra Nevada in recent weeks. Throughout California, snowpack levels are nearly 49% of average for this time of year, which shows significant improvement of conditions at the beginning of January, when snowpack was 28% of the average. California depends on spring and summer snowmelt from snowpack for almost a third of the state’s total supply of water. A lack of sufficient snowpack can also lead to drier forests, putting them at risk for fires.

Despite flooding from recent, intense rainstorms, regions of Maui County are still experiencing major drought. The driest portion of the county is reportedly Valley Isle, and experts anticipate that the dry conditions will likely continue into spring. West Maui and the Upcountry region have experienced water shortages since June, which have led to regional restrictions on water usage. On January 9th, rainfall levels ranged from 2 to 6 inches across most of the Valley Isle, with higher levels being recorded in upper Kula and the West Maui mountains. Even after the deluge, nearly 40% of Maui County remains in moderate or severe drought.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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