Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Surplus persists in Maritime SE Asia

Southeast Asia and the PAcific: Surplus persists in Maritime SE Asia

24 January 2024

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in September 2024 anticipates intense surpluses to persist in Maritime Southeast Asia, particularly in Peninsular Malaysia, various areas of Indonesia, Papua, and Papua New Guinea. 

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected in the following regions:

  • Peninsular Malaysia, throughout the majority of the region. These anomalies continue north into southern Thailand.

  • Cambodia, in most regions near Tonle Sap. Similar anomalies are expected further north in regions of the Salavan Province in southern Laos.

  • Indonesia, throughout central coastal regions of the Riau Province in Sumatra, as well as northwestern regions of Kalimantan and Sarawak. 

  • Central to eastern Papua, throughout regions near the Lorentz National Park, continuing east through the Sibil region into western to central regions of Papua New Guinea, near the April Salome Forest Management Area.

Moderate to severe deficits are anticipated in: 

  • Indonesia, in the southern to southwestern regions of Sumatra. 

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through March 2024 anticipates intense surplus to expand in eastern coastal regions of Sumatra and northwestern to central Kalimantan. Severe to extreme surplus is expected to persist in Peninsular Malaysia, as well as severe surplus in central Papua. Isolated regions of severe to extreme deficits are expected in eastern Thailand and southern Laos. 

From April through June 2024, most regions are expected to observe near-normal conditions, as well as some moderate to severe surplus anomalies in Peninsular Malaysia, northwestern Kalimantan, eastern coastal regions of Sumatra, Thailand, and Laos. Some surplus anomalies are expected to continue north from Peninsular Malaysia into southern Thailand. 

The forecast for the final months – July 2024 through September 2024 – anticipates near-normal conditions and moderate to severe surpluses to persist in most regions, though exceptional surplus may emerge in southern regions of Papua New Guinea. Additionally, moderate to severe surpluses may expand in Kalimantan, Java, and Sarawak.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Currently, nearly 49 percent of Bangladesh’s drinking water reportedly contains unsafe levels of arsenic, which is expected to worsen with climate change. A recent study stated that the increased amounts of arsenic is directly tied to rising sea levels and more severe flooding. The lead author of the study, Dr. Seth Frisbie of Norwich University, stated findings that the concentration of arsenic increases as dissolved oxygen decreases, which is caused by rising sea levels. Bangladesh is one of the countries most at-risk for climate change, as its sea levels are expected to rise half a meter by 2050, submerging nearly 11 percent of the country. 

On January 5th, relief efforts intensified in southern provinces of Thailand after intense flooding affected the region. The military, government, community, and religious leaders distributed 500 bags of supplies, as well as initiated a plan to provide free medical services. Srettha Thavisin, the Prime Minister and Finance Minister, recently discussed further assistance for flood victims stating that soldiers will be deployed to assist in the repairing and restoring of local households and communities.

On January 9th, intense rainfall affected several regions of Malaysia, prompting the evacuation of over 8,500 citizens in the states of Johor and Pahang. The rainfall caused major flooding in the area, which threatened low-lying communities and disrupted travel throughout both states. The flooding also heightened the spread of disease throughout the country, as on January 17th, Malaysian health authorities reported 8,199 total cases of dengue fever between December 31st, 2023 and January 16th, 2024. At 4,252 cases, Selangor is the most affected state, followed by Kuala Lumpur and Putrajaya (920 cases), Johor (718 cases), Negeri Sembilan (602 cases), and Perak (365 cases). 

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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