South America: Widespread deficits remain in Brazil, Chile, Bolivarian Nations

25 January 2023

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in September 2024 anticipates widespread exceptional deficits to decrease in size, but remain throughout much of Brazil, Chile, and eastern portions of the Bolivarian Nations.

Severe to exceptional deficits are anticipated in:

Brazil, widespread throughout the majority of the country’s western and central regions.
Colombia, across the country’s central regions, continuing into western Venezuela and northern coastal regions of the Guianas.
Eastern Peru, across much of the Selva region, continuing southeast and covering much of central to northern Bolivia.
Northern Chile, widespread throughout the Antofagasta region, as well as in southernmost regions of the country near the Alberto de Agostini National Park.

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected in the following regions:

Southern Brazil, within the state of Rio Grande do Sul.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through March 2024 indicates that exceptional deficits will resolve in some regions of Brazil, but will continue in pockets throughout central regions of the country, as well as in northern Bolivia, northwestern Argentina, northeastern Colombia, and western Venezuela. Some similar deficits are expected to continue in northern coastal regions of the Guianas. Moderate to severe surplus is expected to persist in southern Brazil in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, and is expected to continue west into eastern Argentina. Some regions of central Chile can expect similarly intense surpluses.

From April through June 2024, near-normal conditions are expected to arise throughout most of South America. However, extreme to exceptional deficits are expected to appear in northwestern and central regions of Argentina, east-central Bolivia, western to southern Peru, and southern Ecuador. Moderate to severe surpluses are expected to occur in northern Colombia and eastern Venezuela.

The forecast for the final months – July 2024 through September 2024 – anticipates continued near-normal conditions throughout the majority of the continent, though extreme to exceptional deficits are expected to endure in northwestern Argentina, southern Ecuador, and central Colombia. Additionally, much of Peru may experience moderate to severe deficits widespread across the country.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
The European Commission’s Joint Research Centre recently released a study stating that in 2023, nine countries throughout the Amazon basin recorded their lowest levels of rainfall in over 40 years. In the Brazilian region of the Amazon, between August and November 2023, temperatures reached 105.8 °F – roughly 35.6°F to 41°F above the historical average. The dry conditions have affected soil moisture, river levels, and endangered local wildlife, killing hundreds of river dolphins as a result of low water levels. Additionally, the dry conditions have worsened risks for forest fires to spread smoke, ruining air quality.

As the Amazon rainforest endures unprecedented drought, experts report that severe droughts are expected to become more frequent. The rainforest has experienced dry spells in the past, but severe droughts “are becoming more frequent”, says Maria Assunção Dias, a climatologist at the University of São Paulo in Brazil. Dias cited that there is a visible pattern, as extreme droughts were documented in 1912, 1925, 1983, 1987, 1998, 2010, 2016 and now 2023. Luciana Gatti, a climate change researcher, Brazil's National Institute for Space Research (INPE) in São José dos Campos, cited three factors which have further exacerbated these conditions – deforestation, El Nino, and climate change.

The chart above depicts the percentage in the Brazilian state of Amazonas population exposed to surface water anomalies using twelve month integration periods since January 1990. As with our maps, the blues indicate surpluses and the reds indicate deficits. The more intense the color, the more extreme the anomaly. The gray region is the forecast for January through September 2024.

The Brazilian state of Pará recently declared a state of emergency due to extreme drought, which has destroyed crops, reduced the local fish population, diminished water levels, and decreased availability of potable water across the area. Due to dry conditions and increased risk for forest fires, local farmers have started exploring alternatives to traditional slash-and-burn farming methods. Many agricultural workers are employing agroforestry systems, in which trees or shrubs are planted near crops to increase crop health, sustainability, and diversity in crops. Lucieta Martorano, a meteorologist and researcher in Eastern Amazonia with EMBRAPA, the country’s agricultural research agency, stated that due to the increased risk of forest fires, they have been “encouraging people to change from slash-and-burn to agroforestry.”

Climate change is expected to have a major effect on snowpack in South America in the coming years. Specifically in Chile and Argentina, these regions are expected to experience consistent, little to no snow seasons as early as 2046. The Chilean Andes are particularly in danger, as the region is a major agricultural hub and is already experiencing prolonged drought. Experts anticipate that the region’s high altitude will not be sufficient enough to maintain resilience against future snow seasons as warmer temperatures will shrink the snowpack.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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