South America: Water deficits to persist in Chile, central Brazil

24 January 2023

THE BIG PICTURE

The 12-month forecast ending in September 2023 indicates intense deficits in the northern, southwestern, and central areas of the continent. Small pockets of mild to moderate anomalies are also scattered throughout several countries in the central region, including Peru, Bolivia, and Brazil.

Exceptional deficits are expected in the following areas:

Northwestern Venezuela, spreading from the city of Merida to central Guárico.
Pockets throughout western into central Brazil, appearing through Acre into southern Amazonas and central Mato Grosso.
Central to southern Bolivia, with deficits arcing from southern La Paz through Cochabamba, Chuquisaca, southern Potosi and Jujuy.
Southern Chile, widespread throughout the region, beginning in Coquimbo and spreading south along the coast into Patagonia.
Southern Argentina, along the Chico and Deseado River.

Severe to extreme deficits are forecast for:

Central and southern Peru, near the Departments of Huánuco, Cusco, and Apurimac.
Central Brazil, with pockets throughout western Amazonas
Eastern Argentina, from the Salado River moving northwest to Cordoba and southern Santa Fe.
Southern Uruguay, with concentrations in Colonia, Florida, and west Florida. The Falkland Islands can also expect similar deficits.

Extreme to exceptional surpluses are predicted in:

Northern Colombia, from Sucre into northern Cesar, Zulia, and La Guiajira. Curacao and the Caribbean Netherlands can expect surpluses of similar intensity.
Trinidad and Tobago, with widespread surpluses throughout, and moderate to severe surpluses continuing along the coastal areas of the Guianas.
Southeastern Peru, in regions south of the Madre de Dios River.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through March 2023 anticipates exceptional deficits in eastern Argentina and the Pampas to subside, turning into mostly moderate deficits in the eastern regions, Uruguay, and southern areas of Brazil. Exceptional deficits in northwestern Venezuela, southern Chile, southern areas of Patagonia are expected to persist, and western Brazil are expected to persist. Widespread moderate to severe surpluses are anticipated in the northern regions of the continent, including eastern Colombia, northern Brazil, southern Venezuela, and throughout the Guianas.

From April through June 2023, most intense anomalies are expected to disappear. Some anomalies will linger in northern and southern Chile, which are expected to be primarily moderate with some isolated areas of exceptional deficits along its shared border with Bolivia. Some exceptional surpluses are anticipated to linger in the Deseado Department.

The forecast for the final months – July through September 2023 – anticipates moderate to severe deficits spread throughout Colombia and the Guianas, with some mild deficits in northern and eastern Brazil. Regions along Peru’s western coast are expected to experience moderate deficits, with exceptional deficits along the borders of Bolivia and Chile to persist.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Lack of rainfall in Argentina has almost halved output of wheat production and hindered production of other grains this cycle, such as soybeans and corn crops. Argentina’s Economy Minister Sergio Massa met with exporters on January 20th to analyze the country’s agricultural problems experienced as a result of the country’s record-breaking drought; it is experiencing its worst drought in at least 60 years, which began in May 2022. Argentina is the third largest exporter of corn, the world’s leading exporter of soybean oil and meal, and is also a major wheat supplier. Massa expects to have solutions for farmers whose crops are afflicted with dry soil by the beginning of February.

Mining company Antofagasta reported a 10.4% fall in 2022 copper output on January 18th, a result of the ongoing drought in Chile, the world’s largest copper exporter. The company reported production of 646,200 tonnes of copper last year, at the lower end of its anticipated production of between 640,000 tonnes and 660,000 tonnes. Antofagasta, which operates four copper mines in the area, expects production in 2023 to increase to between 670,000 and 710,000 tonnes. Codelco, a state-run mining company in Chile, reported similar falls in production, reporting an estimated 1.446 million tonnes of copper in 2022, compared to 1.618 million tonnes in 2021.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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