Canada: Widespread deficits to persist across provinces

24 January 2023

The 12-month forecast ending in September 2023 indicates widespread exceptional anomalies throughout the continent, with deficits spanning through central areas of most provinces. exceptional surpluses are expected near coastal regions of the Northwest Passage, as well as northern areas of Nunavut.

Exceptional deficits are expected in the following areas:

Central to eastern British Columbia, surrounding regions near the Finley, Nechako, and Peace Rivers, moving east into northwestern Alberta.
Central Saskatchewan, in southern areas of the Canadian Shield near Churchill River.
Central and northern Manitoba, in regions north of the Nelson River and along the coast of Hudson Bay.
Western and eastern Ontario, around Severn River and along the coast of the Hudson Bay.
Widespread throughout Quebec, with the most intense anomalies appearing near Lake Mistassini, as well as east of the Caniapiscau and Manicouagan Rivers. Deficits also appear between the border of eastern Quebec and western Newfoundland.
Southern coastal regions of Newfoundland and Labrador, near the St. Pierre and Miquelon
Western Northwest Territories, in areas west of Keller Lake.
Northern Yukon, in coastal areas north of Porcupine River, spreading east into northern Northwest Territories.
Southeastern Nunavut, throughout and north of Southampton Island into the Inuit Owned Lands and the southern regions of Baffin Island.

Severe to extreme deficits can be expected in:

Northern Quebec, throughout the Ungava Peninsula.
Northwestern Ontario, north of the Severn River. Southeastern regions of the province, north and west of the French River, can expect similarly intense deficits.
Central Alberta, throughout Lesser Slave Lake and Peace River.
Southeastern Yukon, south of the South Nahanni River, along its shared border with Northwest Territories.

Exceptional surpluses are anticipated in:

Northern Northwest Territories, north of Great Bear Lake and along northern coastal regions of the Amundsen Gulf.
Northwest Saskatchewan, in regions south of Lake Athabasca.
Southwest to central Yukon, north of Stewart River and north of Donjek River.
Northwest British Columbia, in the Stikine Region.
Northern Nunavut, along the region’s northern coast of the Northwest Passage.
Northern coastal areas of Banks Island, as well as throughout Melville and Prince Patrick Islands.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through March 2023 anticipates exceptional deficits in eastern-central British Columbia and severe deficits in central to southern Alberta. Central Saskatchewan and central Manitoba can anticipate similarly intense deficits. Eastern Quebec, too, can expect deficits of similar intensity, which spread further east into western Newfoundland. Intense surpluses are forecast to persist in southeastern Northwest Territories into northwest Saskatchewan, and along Nunavut’s northern coast of the Northwest Passage.

From April through June 2023, intense anomalies are expected to further decrease in severity, with exception for eastern-central British Columbia, regions of central Manitoba, and areas of southeastern Nunavut. Southwestern and eastern Quebec can anticipate similar lingering exceptional deficits, spreading into western Newfoundland. Exceptional surpluses in southeastern Northwestern Territories and Nunavut’s northern coastal regions are expected to remain.

The forecast for the final months –July through September 2023 – anticipates further decreases in severity of anomalies, with some persisting, such as deficits in central Manitoba, as well as northeastern Ontario. Surpluses are expected to endure in northwestern Saskatchewan, southeastern and northern Northwest Territories, along with Nunavut’s northern coastal regions.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
On January 20th, a snowmobiler from Grande Prairie, Alberta was killed after being caught in a remote-triggered avalanche in the Allen Oasis Recreation Area, a snowmobiling area near Valemount, British Columbia. Earlier this month, Avalanche Canada, Canada’s national public avalanche safety organization, warned that snowpack in British Columbia this season is uncommonly weak and could be vulnerable to avalanches. The risk for remote-triggered avalanches is elevated in areas that experience long periods of drought and cold weather, creating unstable layers in snowpack throughout the region. This is the third avalanche fatality in British Columbia this year.

A research paper published January 6th reported that nearly half of the world’s glaciers could be lost by 2100 if temperatures were to rise by 1.5 degrees Celsius. International forecast analysis predicts that global temperatures are set to rise by at least 2.4 degrees Celsius by the end of the century, showing the pace of irretrievable loss picking up sharply by 2040 and putting Western Canada’s 15,000 glaciers at risk of near total deglaciation. Glacial loss was already observed in 2022 for pacific salmon in southern British Columbia, with a record-breaking drought drying up riverbanks and killing fish. Many more fish were not able to make their way up to their spawning beds during peak migration time.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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