Europe: Widespread deficits across Continental Europe

25 January 2023

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in September 2023 indicates widespread deficits across Continental Europe with varying degrees of intensity, while the United Kingdom and Ireland are expected to experience pockets of mild to moderate surpluses.

Areas experiencing extreme to exceptional deficits include:

Central to southwestern France, throughout the Limousin and Auvergne regions, as well as northern areas of the Midi-Pyrénées region.
Eastern Bulgaria, in regions along the coast of the Black Sea.
The Baltics, widespread throughout Latvia and Estonia.
Northeastern Spain, in the southeastern regions of Catalonia.
Central Sweden, primarily in Dalarna and southern Jamtland Counties.

Moderate to severe deficits are expected in:

Southern Spain, with widespread deficits throughout the Andalucia region, and exceptional deficits in its southeastern region.
Northern Germany, primarily in southwestern Niedersachsen and western Sachsen-Anhalt.
Poland, with concentrated deficits in eastern West Pomeranian and southern Greater Poland, and northern Warmian-Masurian.
Northern Italy, spreading from the western border of Piemonte to southern Emilia-Romagna, and central Toscana.
Eastern Czech Republic.
Southern Sweden, becoming exceptional in Halland Country.

Moderate to severe surpluses are expected in:

Southern Norway. Surpluses of varying intensity are forecast from Arctic Norway into Murmansk Oblast in Russia.
Russia, east of Lake Onega and in the eastern Volga River Watershed.
Northern Romania.
Northern Sweden, in Norrbotten County.
Ireland, with moderate surpluses overall but more intense anomalies in County Kerry.
Central areas of the United Kingdom, including the Dumfries and Galloway and Scottish Borders council areas, and Cumbria where surpluses could be extreme to exceptional. Moderate surpluses are forecast in South East England.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through March 2023 predicts severe to exceptional deficits in central France, west-central Sweden, and coastal areas of the Balkans, including eastern Bulgaria. Pockets across northern Italy can expect deficits of similar intensity. Moderate deficits are expected to persist in northern France, northern Germany, and western Poland, along with areas in northern and central Italy. Switzerland and Austria are expected to experience areas of moderate surplus, with northern to central Romania experiencing surpluses of similar intensity. In southern and Arctic Norway, eastern Belarus, and northern Ukraine, extreme to exceptional surpluses are expected to emerge. In Ireland and the United Kingdom, most anomalies are expected to lessen in intensity into mild surpluses.

From April through June 2023, existing exceptional deficits in Continental Europe are expected to subside, though deficits in the Baltics are expected to endure. Regions with a forecast of deficit include eastern Bulgaria, southern Ukraine, northeastern Germany, central to southwestern France, and parts of northwestern Italy. Surpluses, primarily moderate, are expected to occur in Arctic Norway.

The forecast for the final months – July through September 2023 – anticipates moderate deficits scattered across Continental Europe, with intense deficits in central Sweden and the Baltics. The United Kingdom and Ireland can anticipate mostly normal conditions.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS

France has announced a five-year “anti-drought” plan in an effort to decrease water consumption throughout the country from its current average of around 150 liters per person. The plan was announced after the country experienced its hottest average temperatures (14.5 degrees Celsius) and lowest levels of rainfall (25 percent below the long-term average, the lowest since 1989) on record in 2022. Ecological Transition Minister Christophe Béchu stated that almost all French departments were affected by lack of water, and that “700 municipalities experienced difficulties in drinking water supply.” The proposed water preservation plan includes agricultural workers, as the government seeks to reduce the volume of water taken from subsoil by 10 percent in 2027. The government also expects to increase the amount of wastewater recycled, as Béchu states that “only 77 of the 33,000 wastewater treatment plants in the country are equipped with a complete recycling treatment system.”

On January 21st, farmers across Germany gathered in Berlin for an annual protest, calling for fairer taxes and governmental assistance. The protest took place at the beginning of Berlin’s International Green Week, with over 55 tractors and thousands of farmers meeting near the Brandenburg Gate. Inka Lange, a spokeswoman for these protests, conveyed several of the protesters’ demands, including assistance for workers with less money, no value-added tax on fruits and vegetables, and incentivization of climate-friendly agriculture. Protesters gave Agriculture Minister Cem Özdemir a note, demanding more support from himself and other officials.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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