South Asia: Intense surplus in Pakistan to persist

South Asia: Intense surplus in Pakistan to persist

25 January 2023

The 12-month forecast ending in September 2023 anticipates continued exceptional surplus in regions of Pakistan, with much of the area experiencing moderate to severe surplus.

Severe to exceptional surplus is expected in:

  • Much of southern to central Pakistan, spreading across the border into western India.

  • Southeastern Afghanistan, in regions along the border of Pakistan.

  • Central and far northern India, with the highest intensities in Karnataka.

  • Southern India, with moderate to severe anomalies in southern Tamil Nadu.

  • Central Nepal.

  • Southern Bangladesh, along the coast of the Bay of Bengal.

  • Southwestern coastal regions of Sri Lanka.

Moderate surpluses is anticipated in:

  • Central and northern India, south of the Narmada River and along the Ravi River.

  • Western Nepal.

  • Northern Pakistan, north of the Chenab River.

  • Eastern to southern Bangladesh, with the highest concentrations in Dhaka and Barisal.

Deficits are forecast in:

  • Far northeastern India, reaching exceptional intensity in Assam.

  • Southern India, with moderate to severe anomalies in southern Tamil Nadu.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through March 2023 indicates that exceptional surpluses in southern Pakistan and western India will become transitional conditions. Intense surpluses are forecast from northern Pakistan through India’s far north and throughout Nepal and Bangladesh. Eastern Afghanistan can expect surpluses of similar intensity. Widespread and mostly moderate surpluses will persist in central India, and intense surpluses in western Maharashtra and central Karnataka.

From April through June 2023, some transitional conditions in southern Pakistan, will remain, while most of it will revert to exceptional surplus. Central India is forecast to experience moderate to severe surpluses, with exceptional surpluses persisting in western Maharashtra and Karnataka. Surpluses will downgrade in Nepal and shrink and downgrade in Bangladesh. Moderate to severe deficits are forecast in India’s far northeast.

The forecast for the final months – July through September 2023 – indicates that exceptional surpluses in southern to central Pakistan will persist. Much of India will experience normal conditions with some areas of intense surplus in Karnataka and far northern India. Deficits will intensify in India’s far northeast.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Nearly 33 million citizens in Pakistan have been affected by the area’s unprecedented floods, which took place last summer. As of mid-January 2023, nearly 10 million children in Pakistan remain significantly impacted by flooding, with 4 million children reported to still be living near contaminated flood water, afflicted with malnutrition, physical ailments, and mental stress. Hundreds of thousands of homes, public health facilities, and vast areas of cropland in the region remain underwater or severely damaged, with many calling the catastrophic flooding as Pakistan’s greatest climate disaster. International donors have pledged a total of $9 billion dollars to assist in the area’s reconstruction and recovery. UNICEF official Abdullah Fadil urged for investment in resilience to meet the needs of citizens, both immediate and long-term, specifically in the most devastated areas, the rural Sindh and Balochistan provinces. "Pakistan is a known climate hotspot,” he said, “and it is only a matter of time before another large-scale climate disaster strikes the country’s children.”

Recent extreme cold waves and flash floods in Afghanistan have killed over 150 people and severely damaged over 50 houses. Additionally, a combination of major snowfall and temperatures dropping to -20 degrees Celsius across the country have killed around 70,000 cattle. On January 22nd, public health officials reported 17 deaths due to cold and respiratory diseases in the Badakhshan province alone. Due to the cold wave crisis, the area is experiencing an unusually cold winter, causing deaths from lack of sufficient infrastructure and the makeshift nature of houses, which in its poorest areas, consist of just canvas tents.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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