Australia & New Zealand: Surpluses in SE Australia to persist

Australia & New Zealand: Surpluses in SE Australia to persist

26 January 2023

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in September 2023 indicates that exceptional anomalies are expected to persist in southeastern Australia and western New Zealand, with mild anomalies throughout both countries.

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected in:

  • New South Wales, with the most intense anomalies occurring in the central regions near the city of Griffith, and north of the Lachlan River.

  • Victoria, covering areas south of the Murray River.

  • Eastern Tasmania, with mostly severe surpluses occurring along the Great Oyster Bay.

  • Southwestern Western Australia, in regions east of Perth, north of the Swan River.

  • Northern New Zealand, spreading along the coasts of the Aupouri, Coromandel, and Mahia Peninsulas.

Extreme to exceptional deficits are expected in:

  • Coastal areas west of the city of Albany in the southwestern tip of Western Australia.

  • Southwestern Tasmania, in areas southwest of the Derwent River.

  • Southern New Zealand, in western coastal areas of Southland, as well as along the Waiau River.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through March 2023 anticipates exceptional surpluses in southeastern Australia to persist near Griffith and north of the Lachlan River. Surpluses in Victoria, south of the Murray River, are also expected to linger. In Southwestern Australia, surpluses of similar intensity are expected to continue near the Swan River. Exceptional deficits are expected to remain near Albany and western coastal areas of New Zealand’s Southland region. However, deficits in western Tasmania will linger, though are expected to lessen in intensity to mild to moderate levels.

From April through June 2023, intense surpluses in southeastern Australia will endure, though lessening in intensity in places south of the Murray River in Victoria. Similar surpluses will continue east of Perth, though deficits near Albany are expected to dissipate into normal conditions to mild deficits. Deficits in western Tasmania are predicted to lessen with some severe to extreme deficits expected along the state’s northern coast. In New Zealand, the surpluses along the country’s northern and eastern peninsulas are expected to disappear, with mild deficits occurring along the Aupouri Peninsula.

The forecast for the final months – July through September 2023 – expects lingering exceptional surpluses in southeastern Australia, extreme to exceptional deficits in western Tasmania, and deficits in New Zealand to decrease in intensity.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Citizens of the Kimberley are struggling to cope after the state recently experienced its largest flooding event in history. Remnants of a tropical storm caused the Fitzroy River to reach 15.811 meters, 1.8 higher than its previous record in 2002. The flooding left roads and bridges unusable, isolating nearby towns Fitzroy Crossing, Derby, and Broome. Evacuees seeking refuge from other flood-affected areas are winding up in places already strained by flooding, including Derby, which has taken in over 200 evacuees. Locals of Derby worry that the influx of people will add more strain to their community, which was struggling before the floods. One local stated that their medical centers and only grocery store were both “already overstretched and under-staffed.” 

Consistent flooding in Australia’s southeastern regions is causing a high number of deaths among the area’s fish. Waters from the area’s previous floods are washing out to sea, washing carp into the ocean, where they cannot survive due to the salinity of the water. Representatives from the state’s Department of Primary Industries and Regions stated that “it was normal for carp to spawn at this time of year, but the high flows were flushing them from the fresh water of the River Murray into the marine environment.”

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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