Southeast Asia & the Pacific: Widespread water surpluses to persist

28 January 2023

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in September 2023 indicates widespread surpluses of varying intensity throughout Southeast Asia and the Pacific.

Areas that can expect exceptional surplus include:

Eastern Thailand into northern Cambodia.
Southern Thailand, with pockets stretching south into central Malaysia.
Western to southeastern Myanmar and coastal areas across Peninsular Myanmar.
Northern Vietnam, near the city of Vinh, as well as coastal areas north of the city of Da Nang.
Northern coastal areas of Indonesia’s island of Sumatra, along the southwest Kalimantan region of Borneo.

Severe to extreme surplus are expected in:

Western and central Indonesia, throughout Sumatra, eastern Java, Flores Island, and northern Sulawesi.

Moderate to severe surpluses are forecast in:

Northern and central regions of Philippines.

Mild to moderate deficits:

Northeastern Papua New Guinea.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through March 2023 indicates that surpluses in central Indonesia will downgrade but anomalies will remain throughout Sumatra. The Philippines, Singapore, and Malaysia can expect moderate to extreme surpluses. Intense surpluses are expected to linger in eastern Thailand and Cambodia. Surpluses in Peninsular Myanmar are expected to become transitional conditions. In Papua New Guinea, severe deficits are forecast in the northern and south-central coastal regions.

From April through June 2023, near-normal conditions will return to much of Indonesia and Pacific regions, with surpluses persisting in northern Sulawesi and the central Philippines. Though shrinking and downgrading in Southeast Asia, surpluses are forecast in Vietnam, central Thailand, and southwestern to south-central Myanmar.

The forecast for the final months – July through September 2023 – indicates continued near-normal conditions throughout the area, with small instances of moderate to severe deficits occurring in western Malaysia, and exceptional deficits throughout East Nusa Tenggara and East Timor.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Cambodia recently received grants from the Asian Development Bank and the Government of Korea to improve 56 rural roads across the country. Though rural roads make up over 75 percent of Cambodia’s roads, only 5 percent of them are paved, which poses risks for road connectivity during major weather events like heavy rain and flooding. The project has started with a total estimated cost of $133.574 million. By improving roads, it is expected to reduce transportation costs and road disruption risks, helping to aid agriculture supply chains.

Major weather events resulting from surpluses continue to impact regions throughout the Philippines. The country’s National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council reported 38 weather-related fatalities since the start of January, mostly from flooding and landslides. As of January 21st, almost 2 million people across the country have been impacted. 51 provinces have experienced problems from the severe weather, with Northern and Eastern Samar both reporting over 340,000 people being affected. Over 1,200 houses have been damaged and 548 have been destroyed, displacing 119,121 people. Around 90,000 are currently housed in 350 evacuation centers, with over half of that number in evacuation centers in Northern Samar.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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