Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Pockets of deficit remain in NW, E Mexico

29 January 2024

THE BIG PICTURE

The 12-month forecast ending in September 2024 anticipates widespread exceptional deficits to resolve throughout the majority of Mexico, but persist in isolated portions of northwestern and eastern states. Similarly, intense deficits are expected to dissipate in Central America. Moderate surplus will emerge in pockets across Nicaragua and Costa Rica.

Severe to exceptional deficits are anticipated in:

Northwestern Mexico, throughout western to southwestern regions of the state of Chihuahua.
East-central Mexico, widespread throughout the states of Hidalgo, Puebla, and Oaxaca.
Northern to central regions of Baja California Sur.

Moderate to severe surpluses are expected in the following regions:

Southwestern Mexico, in southern regions of the state of Guerrero.
North-central Mexico, in central regions of the state of Coahuila.
Southeastern Honduras, throughout the departments of El Paraiso and Olancho.
Throughout most of central Costa Rica.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through March 2024 anticipates deficits to linger in Mexico, specifically in the state of Chihuahua, as well as further east in Hidalgo, Puebla, and Oaxaca. Exceptional deficits are expected to emerge in southwestern coastal regions of Guerrero, though exceptional surplus is expected to linger nearby, near the town of Acapulco. Surpluses are expected to intensify in southeastern Honduras, spreading further into Nicaragua, in territories along the country’s northern border, as well as regions northwest of Lago Cocibolca.

From April through June 2024, most intense anomalies in Mexico are expected to resolve, though some exceptional deficits will still remain in northwestern regions of the country, as well as southernmost portions of Baja California and Baja California Sur. Most of Central America will experience moderate surplus, with the highest concentrations appearing throughout Costa Rica, Panama, central Honduras, and southern Mexico, in western Chiapas.

The forecast for the final months – July 2024 through September 2024 – anticipates moderate to extreme deficits to appear in eastern regions of Mexico, in most regions east of Mexico City. Similar deficits are anticipated in western coastal regions of Baja California and Baja California Sur, near El Rosario de Arriba and Bahía Tortugas. Near-normal conditions are expected throughout most other regions.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Drought continues to affect shipping through the Panama Canal, as authorities recently decreased ship crossings in the canal by 36%. Announced January 17th, the cuts are anticipated to cost nearly $500 to $700 million dollars in 2024, a major increase from previous estimates of $200 million. The drought is thought to be one of the most severe droughts to ever hit the region, causing major concern among authorities. Panama Canal Administrator Ricaurte Vásquez stated that daily ship crossings were to be decreased to 24, another significant decrease from last year’s 38. “It’s vital that the country sends a message that we’re going to take this on and find a solution to this water problem,” Vásquez said.

Due to widespread drought, farmers in Mexico have begun using nal t’eel, a drought-resilient type of native corn, to make whiskey. Over a dozen distilleries in Mexico have started to make whiskey with nal t’eel, with half of them exporting to the United States. Of the 59 types of native Mexican corn, nal t’eel is one of the oldest, as it emerged in the Yucatán Peninsula nearly 4,000 years ago. It has proven to have high crop yields in recent years, as it stands resilient against both heavy rain and drought.

Religious practices of members of Mexico’s Indigenous Wixárika population are being affected by regional drought. As part of a ritual, the Wixárika embark on an arduous 500 mile trek from Jalisco to San Luis Potosí to acquire the hallucinogenic cactus peyote. However, due to the lack of rain, the plant has become more difficult to find. “There used to be a sort of peyote carpet here,” says Silviño, a member of the Wixárika. “Now, you have to look for them. With a little rain, hundreds could grow very quickly, but without rain they dry up before they even have the chance to grow.”

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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