Middle East: Deficits expand in Saudi Arabia, Yemen, portions of the Levant

Middle East: Deficits expand in Saudi Arabia, Yemen, portions of the Levant

29 January 2024

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in September 2024 anticipates exceptional deficits to expand throughout Saudi Arabia, continuing down into Yemen and Oman. Jordan, Iraq and Iran are expected to observe similarly intense expansion of exceptional deficits. 

Severe to exceptional deficits are anticipated in: 

  • Central to southern Saudi Arabia, throughout the Riyadh, Makkuh, Asir, and Najrah provinces, which continue into the majority of western United Arab Emirates. 

  • Yemen, in north-central regions of the country, and throughout most of Oman. 

  • Western Iraq, in regions west of the Therthar and Habbaniyah lakes. Similarly intense deficits are anticipated in eastern regions of Jordan.

  • Iran, widespread throughout most of the country. 

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected in the following regions:

  • Western Yemen, in western coastal regions of the Al Hudaydah Governorate. 

  • Western Turkey, in regions directly south of the Sea of Marmara.  

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail. 

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through March 2024 indicates that most of Saudi Arabia will experience near-normal to abnormal conditions, with exceptional deficits continuing in south-central to southeastern Yemen, and throughout most of Oman. Pockets of intense deficits are expected to resolve in Iran, as well as Iraq, becoming near-normal to abnormal conditions. Surplus in western Turkey is expected to dissipate, but severe to exceptional surplus is expected to emerge in eastern Turkey, near eastern Anatolia. 

From April through June 2024, exceptional deficits are expected to re-emerge in central Saudi Arabia, as well as in eastern Yemen and central to southern Iraq. Exceptional deficits are expected to continue throughout Oman. Southwestern coastal regions of Iran along the Persian Gulf are expected to observe exceptional deficits, which continue into southeastern regions of the country. Similarly intense deficits are expected to emerge in northern Iran, throughout the Gilan Province.

The forecast for the final months – July 2024 through September 2024 – anticipates most exceptional deficits in the area to resolve, with the exception of regions of central Saudi Arabia in the Riyadh Province. Small, isolated pockets of similarly intense deficits are expected to occur in southeastern Iraq, as well as north-central to northwestern Iran.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
In the United Arab Emirates (UAE), meteorological experts are expected to complete 300 cloud-seeding missions to improve accessibility to water throughout the country. The UAE, which is in one of the hottest and most arid regions on earth, has been working to seed clouds and improve precipitation levels for over 23 years. As temperatures rise and changing weather conditions worsen water scarcity issues, the urgency to safeguard the country’s water supply has become more urgent. “The UAE carries out nearly 300 cloud-seeding missions each year, and the frequency can vary based on factors such as weather patterns, cloud availability, and climatic conditions,” a UAE official reported. Additionally, the official stated that a similarly high number of missions are expected for 2024. 

The World Food Programme and Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations recently reported that Yemen was one of eight regions that have an escalated risk of experiencing acute food insecurity from November 2023 to April 2024. According to the report, acute food insecurity “is expected to remain at critical levels, amid the protracted economic crisis worsened by an anticipated reduction in humanitarian assistance.” Additionally, the country’s highlands typically endure below freezing temperatures between November and February, with humanitarian partners estimating that the impending conditions will affect over 900,000 in the coming months. 

Atheer Al-Ghurairi, the Iraqi Minister of Trade, recently announced that the country will not import wheat this year, as the country has ample stock for seven months. The high yield produced last year followed an agricultural shift of using groundwater to grow crops instead of river water, which is dwindling. Al-Gurairi stated that the country has two million tons of wheat, and that this year’s harvest season is scheduled to begin at its usual time, by April.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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