Southeast Asia & the Pacific: Water surpluses in Malaysia, Phillippines to persist

Southeast Asia & the Pacific: Water surpluses in Malaysia, Phillippines to persist

31 March 2023

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in November 2023 indicates widespread surpluses of varying intensity throughout Southeast Asia and the Pacific.

Areas that can expect exceptional surplus include:

  • Malaysia, widespread throughout the country.

  • Eastern islands of the Philippines, in pockets throughout Samar Island, the province of Santiago, and Surigao City.

  • Throughout the Indonesian province of Nusa Tenggara Timur, and in northern coastal regions near the city of Banda Aceh.

Severe to extreme surplus are expected in:

  • Central Vietnam, with the highest intensity anomalies appearing along eastern coastal regions near the city of Nha Trang. Further north, areas near the city of Hue can expect surpluses of similar intensity.

  • Northern and southern islands of the Philippines, throughout the regions of Mindanao, Samar, and Leyte.

  • Indonesia, appearing in northern Sulawesi, eastern Java, and northern coastal regions in Borneo, within the state of Sabah.

  • Southern Papua, appearing in southern coastal regions near Konerau.

Severe to exceptional deficits are forecast in:

  • Taiwan, spanning much of the country.

  • Southern Papua New Guinea, in areas north of the Bumu River.

  • Western Malaysia, in the southern regions of Perak.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through May 2023 indicates that exceptional surpluses along the border of Thailand and Cambodia will reemerge, with severe to extreme surpluses persisting throughout the rest of Thailand, Vietnam, Singapore, and Malaysia. In the Philippines, extreme surpluses are expected to continue throughout the regions of Mindanao, Samar, and Leyte, which continue further south into northeastern regions of the Indonesian island of Borneo, as well as northern Kalimantan. Similar surpluses are anticipated in North Sulawesi, North Maluku, and Nusa Tenggara Timur. Eastern areas of the island of Java, as well as southeastern Sulawesi, can expect moderate to severe deficits.

From June through August 2023, near-normal conditions will return to much of Indonesia, with surpluses persisting in Nusa Tenggara Timur. In central Vietnam and the central Philippines, similarly intense surpluses are expected. Moderate deficits are expected to occur in western Malaysia, near Perak.

The forecast for the final months – September through November 2023 – indicates continued nearnormal conditions throughout the area, with small instances of moderate to severe deficits occurring in western Malaysia, eastern Java, and areas along the shared border of Papua and Papua New Guinea.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
On March 6th, restoration began in southern Malaysia after flooding from days of torrential, destructive rainfall forced thousands from their homes. Intense flooding in the Malaysian state of Johor displaced over 40,000 citizens, with at least four deaths reported during the past week. Authorities have set up over 200 relief shelters for the people displaced.

Though floods in Malaysia are common during the annual monsoon seasons, residents are concerned with how the seasonal conditions have started to shift. "We used to always prepare for the rainy season in November and December," said a resident of Yong Peng, one of the worst affected areas. "Each household had a boat, but now with the unpredictable weather, it seems that we are not prepared and it's become chaotic." 

In Vietnam, heavy rainfall and thunderstorms are expected to impact north and north-central regions of the country until at least the end of March. As a result, floods and related disasters such as landslides are expected. To mitigate damage to housing and flood-related displacement, local architecture studio SDA constructed the Floating House, an elevated concrete-framed home designed to withstand damage from flood events. The house was constructed on the outskirts of Ho Chi Minh City in the Thu Duc district, an area which is often flooded by nearby rivers. 

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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