Central Asia & Russia: Surplus, transitional conditions to persist in Central Russia

Central Asia & Russia: Surplus, transitional conditions to persist in Central Russia

03 April 2023

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in November 2023 indicates major anomalies throughout the continent, with intense surplus throughout much of its central and eastern regions, and major deficits occurring throughout its southwestern areas.

Extreme to exceptional surplus is forecast in:

  • Eastern Russia, throughout northern and central regions of the Sakha Republic, as well as areas east of the federal subject Zabaykalsky Krai.

  • Northern and central Russia, in western coastal regions of the Taymyrsky Dolgano-Nenetsky District, as well as southern regions of the federal subject Krasnoyarsk Krai.

  • Southern Russia, throughout central Chita, continuing further north into eastern Irkutsk Oblast.

Deficits of varying intensity are expected in:

  • Northwest Russia, with exceptional deficits near the settlement of Novy Port, as well as isolated instances in central areas of Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug.

  • Pockets in southwestern Kazakhstan, with exceptional deficits near the Mangystau Province.

  • Regions within central Uzbekistan, which spreads further south into northern Turkmenistan.

  • Northeastern Russia, in coastal regions in northeastern Chukchi Autonomous Okrug.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through May 2023 predicts widespread exceptional surpluses in much of Russia’s Yenisei River Watershed, Central Siberian Plateau, and pockets throughout the Russian Far East. Severe to exceptional surpluses will persist from central Tyumen Oblast further east into territories near the city of Omsk. Transitional conditions are expected to emerge on the Amu Darya River, with pockets of moderate to severe surplus appearing in eastern Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. Exceptional deficits will increase in pockets of northern Siberia, spreading east from Zapolyarny District into the Yamalsky District.

From June through August 2023, transitional conditions within the central regions of the Central Siberian Plateau are expected to persist, with areas north and east of Lake Baikal experiencing lingering exceptional surplus. Coastal regions within the Narymsky District, the Tazovsky District, and areas along the Verkhoyansk Mountains can expect surpluses of similar intensity.

The forecast for the final months – September through November 2023 – predicts most intense anomalies throughout the region to dissipate, with exceptional deficits continuing near the settlement of Novy Port and near the Zapolyarny District. Deficits of mostly mild intensity will persist in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and western Kazakhstan. Extreme surpluses are forecast in Taymyrsky Dolgano-Nenetsky District, northwest of Lake Baikal, within the Narymsky District, the Tazovsky District, and near the Verkhoyansk Mountains.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
In Russia, the Committee for Natural Resources recently announced the results for the data collection conducted for a regional plan to combat climate change in the city of St. Petersburg. The average annual temperature in the region is expected to increase by 2.5 to 3.5 degrees Celsius between 2041 and 2060. Winter is expected to noticeably increase, by 3.2 to 4.4 degrees. St. Petersburg’s increase is classified as moderate, with an increase in average temperature in January up to 2 degrees, and in July, between 2.1 to 2.5 degrees. 

With increases in temperature, flooding also threatens the area. Studies observing St. Petersburg found that the number of days with total precipitation over 15mm a day has grown in the past 90 years. Similarly, the forecast for the maximum amount of precipitation per hour may increase by 20-30% by 2050. Officials expect that the increase in precipitation is expected to become detrimental to the city due to the potential increase of levels of stormwater runoff. 

On March 29th, Sergey Karlin, was officially recognized for assisting in evacuating citizens of the Shelopuginsky District following a devastating flood in the summer of 2019. Karlin, a employee of the administration of the Shelopuginsky District, stated that “we were alerted at 4 in the morning, and from 6 in the morning we were engaged in evacuation for two days.” Karlin is currently a consultant to the administration of the Shelopuginsky District for civil defense, protection of the population and territory from emergencies.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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