South Asia: INTENSE WATER SURPLUS WILL PERSIST IN PAKISTAN

03 April 2023

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in November 2023 anticipates persisting exceptional surplus in regions of Pakistan, with northern regions experiencing similarly intense surplus.

Severe to exceptional surplus is expected in:

Much of southern to central Pakistan, spreading across the border into western India.
Southeastern areas of Pakistan, specifically near the city of Karachi, will also experience intense transitional conditions.
Southern India, within the central to southern regions of Karnataka.
Southeastern to eastern Afghanistan, in regions along the border of Pakistan.
Far northern India, in Himachal Pradesh. Surrounding areas will experience surpluses of lesser intensity.

Moderate surpluses are anticipated in:

Sri Lanka, throughout the country.
Northern Pakistan, north of the city of Islamabad.

Deficits are forecast in:

Southwestern Pakistan, of exceptional intensity, near the lake of Hamun-e-Mashkel, and continuing north into southern Afghanistan.
Central Bangladesh, with extreme to exceptional deficits affecting regions south of the Brahmaputra River.
Northern India, with severe to extreme deficits occurring north of New Delhi.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through May 2023 indicates that exceptional surpluses in southern Pakistan and western India will become intense transitional conditions, spreading further east to cover bordering areas of west India. Central to southern India and expect widespread severe to extreme surpluses, which pass through Nepal and into southern Bangladesh.

From June through August 2023, some transitional conditions in southern Pakistan will remain while most anomalies will revert to exceptional surplus. Southern India is forecast to experience exceptional surpluses in Karnataka. Surpluses will downgrade in Nepal and shrink to mostly normal conditions, while deficits in central Bangladesh will emerge.

The forecast for the final months – September through November 2023 – indicates that exceptional surpluses and transitional conditions in southern to central Pakistan will persist. Much of India will experience normal conditions with some areas of mild to moderate surplus in northern India.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Citizens of Pakistan are struggling to survive more than six months after the country’s historic floods, which killed thousands, displaced eight million people, and submerged a third of the country. Many families have been forced to live in tents surrounded by stagnant water and are facing food scarcity, eating just one meal a day. Inflation is worsening the area’s food scarcity. Doctors are reporting increased levels of malnutrition due to families being forced to minimize their daily food intake. According to the United Nations, over a million people are at risk of sliding into emergency levels of starvation.

Communities in the Sindh province affected by the floods discussed shortages of land suitable for agriculture, as much has been damaged from flooding. In the Sindh province, farming is the main income source for most families in the area. The International Labour Organization (ILO) says disruptions and job losses due to floods affected about 4.3 million workers in Pakistan. The village of Dital Khan Chandio in the Dadu district was one of the worst affected by last year’s catastrophic floods. Local agricultural workers saw catastrophic flood waters destroy crops and kill livestock. “Before floods I worked in the agricultural fields from dawn to dusk to raise my five children and raise my livestock to make ends meet. Now there is no land for cultivation and all my livestock – over a dozen goats, four buffaloes and three cows – drowned,” said local Haleema Aslam.

Nine deaths have been reported in various parts of Afghanistan. Officials in the country’s Natural Disasters management department said that 74 people have been injured in the floods that have swept 23 provinces of Afghanistan. Nearly 1,800 houses have been damaged, as well as 20,000 acres of agricultural land. Recently, nine provinces in the country have been severely impacted by the extreme weather, including Zabul, Nangarhar, Kunar, Nuristan, Faryab, Balkh, Uruzgan, Nimroz, and Laghman.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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