East Asia: Water deficits in Inner Mongolia, W and Central China

3 April 2023

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in November 2023 indicates pockets of exceptional anomalies throughout East Asia, ranging from intense surplus in western and northeastern regions, to intense deficits in its northern and southeastern territories.

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected in:

Northeast China, with the most intense anomalies appearing in the provinces of Heilongjiang, Jilin, and Liaoning.
Western China, spanning across the southern border of Tibet and western Xizang. Areas in western regions of the Kashgar Prefecture, along its shared borders between Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, can experience similar surpluses.

Extreme to exceptional deficits can be anticipated in:

Northern and northwest China, throughout central Inner Mongolia and southeastern Xinjiang.
The Yangtze River Basin, throughout much of the region.
Taiwan, throughout much of the country.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through May 2023 anticipates intense surpluses in northeast China, the Shandong Peninsula, North China Plain, western Tibet, and southwestern Tibetan Plateau. Transitional conditions can be anticipated in western Tibet throughout South Xinjiang with surplus of varying intensity occurring further northeast of Tibet. Intense deficits can be expected to persist along the Yangtze River Basin. Deficits are expected to persist in southern Taiwan, as well as South Korea and southern Japan.

From June through August 2023, deficits are expected to subside near Hubei and Guizhou, though will persist in western Inner Mongolia and eastern Xinjiang. Surpluses will continue in northern Shanxi, and across the Shandong Peninsula. Surplus will continue in South Xinjiang, varying in intensity and continuing further southeast into Tibet and Nepal. Mostly mild anomalies are expected to occur in pockets throughout the nation.

The forecast for the final months – September through November 2023 – predicts most intense anomalies to disappear, with exceptional deficits persisting in western Sichuan and exceptional surpluses occurring in southern Tibet, crossing into north-central Tibet. Small pockets of intense surplus are expected to endure in isolated areas of the North China Plain.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Over twelve major Chinese cities saw record-high seasonal temperatures at the beginning of March. In Wuhan and Zhengzhou, temperatures rose by more than 18 degrees Fahrenheit above normal seasonal conditions. Wuhan experienced temperatures of 26 degree Celsius on March 6th, 12 degrees higher than the usual conditions in early March. Beijing and other nearby cities saw temperatures rise between 22 to 25 degrees Celsius during the week of March 6th.

Taiwan, home to Asia's biggest semiconductor industry, is preparing for water shortages less than two years after its worst drought in a century. Currently, many of the island’s reservoirs are less than half full. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., the world's biggest contract chipmaker consumes 99,000 tonnes of water per day alone. As Taiwan relies on rainfall to fill its reservoirs, Taiwanese cities have already begun preparing for constraints on water supplies.

In mid-March, ruins of ancient tombs over 12,000 years old were exposed in Dongting Lake following severe drought in China. Thought to be dating from the Neolithic age, around 10,000 B.C., archaeologists found stone axes and other tools from the area. Also found nearby were porcelain and pottery items from the Tang and Song dynasties, which ruled China beginning in 618 A.D. and continuing until 1279. Pottery from the Ming and Qing dynasties was also found, which ruled one after the other from 1368 until the early 1910s. Archaeologists did not specify the exact ages of the pottery found near the tombs.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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