Global Precipitation & Temperature Outlook April 2023

6 April 2023

OVERVIEW

Our April 2023 Global Precipitation and Temperature Outlook indicates that several regions of the world will experience significantly warmer temperatures than normal, with exceptional anomalies occurring in many areas, including South America, East Asia, and Southeast Asia. Precipitation anomalies are expected to be mild overall, with some areas experiencing pockets of moderate to severe surpluses, such as Russia, Australia, South America.

TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK

The United States is expected to observe mostly normal to mild anomalies, with small, isolated areas of extreme to exceptionally warm temperatures appearing in the southeastern states.

Areas forecast to observe extreme to exceptionally higher than normal temperature include:

Central to southern Florida, spreading from regions near Miami to Orlando.
East-central Louisiana into southwestern Mississippi.
Southern Texas into western Louisiana.

Temperature outlook. Reds indicate above normal monthly average temperature. Blues indicate below normal monthly average temperature. The darker the color, the more extreme the anomaly relative to a 1950-2009 climatic baseline. Colors are based on the expected return period of the anomalies.

Canada can expect warmer than normal conditions to be widespread throughout the continent, though most areas will experience moderate temperature levels.

Warm anomalies are forecast in:

Southeastern Yukon, with extreme to exceptional anomalies appearing near the Nááts'įhch'oh National Park Reserve and into southwestern Northwest Territories.
The Rivière-Koksoak region of Quebec, throughout most of the territory.
Nunavut, with mild to moderate anomalies widespread throughout the entire province, including much of the Queen Elizabeth Islands.

Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean can expect similarly warm temperatures to that of South America, with exceptional anomalies occurring throughout Mexico and the Caribbean.

The following areas can expect exceptionally warmer than normal temperatures:

Central Mexico, appearing in pockets in and west of Mexico City, traveling north into the city of Monterrey.
Western Cuba, from its western coast through Havana, continuing into the regions near the city of Matanas.

The following areas can expect severe to extremely warmer temperatures:

Southern Mexico, throughout the states of Oaxaca and central to eastern Veracruz. Similarly warm temperatures appear further north in central Mexico, appearing in the state of Michoacan and continuing northeast into the state of Tamaulipas. Continuing north, western areas of the state of Coahulia can anticipate similarly warm conditions.
Eastern Cuba, occurring near the city of Las Tunas and spreading east throughout the rest of the country.

South America will experience warmer than normal temperatures throughout the continent, with many areas experiencing exceptionally warm temperatures.

Exceptionally warmer temperatures are expected in:

Eastern to central Brazil, throughout the states of Mato Grosso de Sol and São Paulo, spreading northeast across the country into Bahia, Piaui, and Maranhao.
Northern Chile, throughout regions near the town of Putre, moving south throughout the country through the city of Calama and near the Los Flamencos National Reserve.
Coastal regions along the western coast of Peru.
Along the Guianas, with the highest temperature levels in eastern Guyana, spreading further throughout Suriname and French Guiana.

Severe to extremely warmer temperatures are anticipated in:

Western Brazil, within the states of Amazonas, Para, and Mato Grosso.
Western Colombia, appearing near the city of Medellin into Cali and continuing throughout Ecuador.

Europe is expected to endure widespread moderately warm anomalies throughout Continental Europe, as well as throughout the United Kingdom and Ireland.

Moderate anomalies are expected in:

Northern Finland, occurring near the city of Rovaniemi and moving further east into central regions of the country.
Eastern Norway, in areas north of the city of Lulea, spreading west into central regions.
Portugal, throughout the entire country, spreading north into the majority of Spain.
Belarus, in areas north of the Palieski State Radioecological Reserve.
Romania, throughout the country.
Ireland and the United Kingdom, widespread throughout both regions.

Africa can anticipate higher than normal temperatures, widespread throughout the continent. Central and northwestern Africa, as well as regions of the Southern Cone can anticipate the more intense temperature anomalies.

Severe to extremely higher than normal temperatures are expected in:

Eastern Mauritiana, throughout the department of Oualata, spreading into western Mali.
Northwestern Algeria, with the highest intensity of anomalies occurring near the city of Bechar.
Western coastal regions of Guinea.
Northern Gabon, near the Minkébé National Park, continuing north throughout Cameroon.
Northeastern Republic of the Congo, across northern regions of the district of Dongou.
North-central Democratic Republic of Congo, near the city of Kisangani.
Northeastern Tanzania, appearing near the city of Arusha.
Botswana, widespread throughout the country, with the most intense anomalies occurring near the city of Gaborone. Similar temperatures are anticipated in southern to central Zimbabwe.
Northeast South Africa, appearing near the city of Newcastle and continuing north into regions near the city of Polokwane.
Madagascar, widespread throughout the country. Eastern coastal regions and areas near the city of Antananarivo are expected to experience exceptionally warmer than normal temperatures.
Southern Somalia, with the highest temperatures expected near the city of Mogadishu.

Cooler than normal temperatures are anticipated in:

Southern Democratic Republic of the Congo, appearing near the town of Manono and spreading west into northern areas of the Kapanga Territory.
North-central Kenya, near the settlement of Choba.

The Middle East can expect mostly normal conditions to mildly warmer than normal temperatures, with some intense warm anomalies appearing in its southern regions.

Temperatures extreme to exceptionally warmer than normal are expected in:

Yemen, across its southern coast bordering the Gulf of Aden. Further inland, areas near the city of Marib can expect extremely warmer than normal temperatures.
Western Oman, in coastal regions near the city of Salalah, moving further inland north into central regions of the Dhofar Governorate.

Moderate warm anomalies are anticipated in:

Western Iraq, crossing over into eastern Jordan.
Northern Saudi Arabia,
Northern Iran, appearing in pockets across its northern border near the cities of Tabriz and Mashdad.
The Levant, widespread throughout the area.

Central Asia is expected to endure widespread warm anomalies throughout the area, as well as Russia. Anomalies vary in intensity, ranging from moderate to exceptionally warmer conditions.

Extreme to exceptional temperatures are expected in:

Central areas along the border of West and East Siberian Russia, continuing throughout southwestern areas of the Krasnoyarsk Krai district.
The Russian federal subject of Kamchatka Krai, widespread throughout the entire area. Similar temperature levels continue across southern regions of Chukotka Autonomous Okrug.
Southeastern Russia, appearing throughout the federal subjects of Khabarovsk Krai and Primorsky Krai.

Severe to extreme temperatures are forecast in:

Central to northern Kazakhstan, appearing in an arc through the Ulytau, Kostanay, and North Kazakhstan provinces.
Turkmenistan, with severe anomalies covering much of the country, spreading further north into western and southeast Tajikistan.

South Asia is forecast to observe mostly cooler than usual temperatures, mostly of moderate intensity.

Moderately cooler temperatures are expected in:

Northeastern India, across the states of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar.
Nepal, widespread throughout the country.
Throughout the kingdom of Bhutan.

Warmer temperatures are forecast in the following areas:

Northern Pakistan, with exceptionally warm anomalies appearing in areas north of the city of Islamabad, spreading further north into Tajikistan.
Northern India, with exceptional anomalies appearing throughout the state of Himachal Pradesh, crossing over into western Tibet.
Southern India, with moderate anomalies occurring in the southern areas of the state of Tamil Nadu.

The majority of countries in Southeast Asia and the Pacific are expected to endure widespread intense warm anomalies, the highest concentrations of which are present in Papua, Thailand, and central Indonesia. Other areas are expected to experience severe to extremely warmer than usual temperatures.

Exceptional anomalies are anticipated in:

The entire Indonesian islands of Sulawesi, West and East Nusa Tenggara, and the Maluku provinces.
The entire province of West Papua, spreading east, further inland into Puncak Jaya.

Severe to extreme warm anomalies are expected to occur in:

Southeastern Thailand, appearing near Bangkok and forming an arc spreading northeast into the provinces of Buri Ram, Si Sa Ket, and Amnat Charoen.
Central Indonesia, throughout the Kalimantan region.
Eastern Brunei, throughout the state of Sabah.
In western regions of the Indonesian island of Java.
Eastern Papua, appearing east of the Puncak Trikora and continuing further east to cover much of the country of Papua New Guinea.

The forecast for East Asia anticipates intense warm anomalies throughout much of the region’s eastern areas.

Extreme to exceptionally warmer temperatures are anticipated in:

Northeastern China, widespread throughout northeastern Inner Mongolia, as well as the provinces of Heilongjiang and Jilin.
North Korea and South Korea, with the highest intensity anomalies occurring along the two countries’ eastern coasts.
The entirety of Japan, with moderate anomalies occurring throughout the southern island of Kyushu.
In the Yangtze River Basin, near the city of Wuhan, moving east into coastal regions of the city of Huangang.

Much of Australia is expected to observe mostly mild temperature anomalies, except for intense warmer temperatures occurring in the northeast. Mild to moderately cooler temperatures are expected in the southeast and western regions.

Regions forecast to experience warm anomalies include:

Northern coastal areas of Queensland, with exceptionally warm anomalies continuing in regions along the Coastal Waters Of Great Barrier Reefs.
Southeastern Australia, in coastal regions bordering the Great Australian Bight.
Southwestern areas of New Zealand, throughout much of the Southland province and into the Clutha District.

Cooler temperatures are forecast in the following regions:

Central Western Australia, throughout areas near Lake Carnegie.
Central areas of New South Wales.

PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK

The forecast for North America indicates that surpluses will occur in north and east-central states, as well as the Pacific Northwest. Several southwestern states are expected to experience moderate to severe deficits.

States that can expect precipitation surpluses include:

Tennessee, which continues spreading into Kentucky, throughout both states.
Wisconsin, near the city of Milwaukee.
Western areas of the Pacific Northwest, specifically western coastal regions of Washington and Wyoming.

States expected to experience moderate to severe precipitation deficits include:

Southern Texas, spreading throughout much of southeastern to central New Mexico.
Southern areas of Arizona, which continue spreading west into southern California.

Precipitation outlook. Reds indicate below normal monthly total precipitation. Blues indicate above normal monthly total precipitation. The darker the color, the more extreme the anomaly relative to a 1950-2009 climatic baseline. Colors are based on the expected return period of the anomalies.

Canada can expect mostly normal conditions with pockets of mild to moderate surpluses across its southwestern and eastern provinces.

Provinces expected to observe precipitation surpluses include:

Southern British Columbia, near the city of Vancouver.
South-central Alberta, occurring near the city of Calgary.
Northeastern coastal regions of Newfoundland and Labrador, along the coast of the Labrador Sea.

The forecast for Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean anticipates widespread deficits across most of the regions, though are anticipated to be mild to moderate.

Moderate to severe anomalies are anticipated in the following areas:

Southern Mexico, in the Yucatan Peninsula throughout the state of Campeche.
Northern Mexico, in northern regions of the states of Sonora and Baja California, along the border of the southern United States.
Southwestern Mexico, in southern areas of the state of Michoacan.
Costa Rica, throughout the country, which continue to spread throughout the majority of Panama.

The forecast for South America indicates major anomalies, both deficits and surpluses, will occur in various parts of the continent.

Surpluses are expected in the following regions:

Peru, with extreme to exceptional surpluses occurring along much of the western coast, spreading through the cities of Piura, Trujillo, Lima, and further inland into Cusco. Similarly intense surpluses are expected in southwestern Bolivia, near the city of Uyuni.
Western Colombia, with severe to extreme surpluses appearing along the country’s western coast and near the city of Cali.
Western Ecuador, with severe to extreme anomalies throughout the majority of the Manabí province.
Northern Argentina, which can expect mild to moderate surpluses throughout the Salta province.
Western Brazil, with moderate anomalies throughout the state of Acre, as well as southwestern regions of the state of Amazonas.

Deficits are anticipated in:

Southern Brazil, with moderate to severe anomalies expected in the states of Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul.
Throughout French Guiana.

Much of Europe is expected to experience normal conditions, with some sparse areas of mild deficits.

Mild deficits are expected to occur in:

Northern Italy, appearing near the city of Milan.
Northwestern Spain, emerging along northwestern coastal regions near the city of Gijon.

Africa is expected to experience mostly normal conditions, with some anomalies of mild to moderate intensities are expected in small areas of the Southern Cone.

Areas forecast to experience precipitation deficits include:

Northern and northeastern regions of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), along the country’s entire northern border.
Between Uganda and Tanzania, appearing across Lake Victoria.

Precipitation surpluses are expected in:

Angola, with mild to moderate anomalies occurring throughout much of the country, spreading further east into areas of southern DRC and Zambia.
Small, isolated areas of the Horn of Africa, particularly northeastern Ethiopia, Djibouti, and northern Somalia.
Madagascar, with widespread moderate tosevere anomalies across the entire country.

The forecast for the Middle East indicates moderate to severe anomalies in the following areas:

Northeast Iran, with moderate to severe deficits near the city of Mashhad.
Western to southern Afghanistan, with similarly intense deficits appearing near the city of Harat and into areas near the city of Kandahar.
Western regions of Turkey, with moderate to severe surpluses occurring throughout areas near the city of Izmir, spreading further southeast into regions near the city of Antalya.

Russia can expect widespread surpluses of precipitation, mostly of moderate to severe intensity, primarily throughout the Russian Far East and northern regions of Siberia.

Areas forecast to experience moderate to severe increases in precipitation include:

Central to southern areas of the Sakha Republic in the Russian Far East.
Southern areas of Irkutsk Oblast, near Lake Baikal.
Central regions of Krasnoyarsk Krai, moving west and spreading throughout Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug.

Central Asia can expect mostly normal to mild conditions, with the following countries experiencing mild to moderate precipitation deficits:

Turkmenistan, throughout much of the country’s southern regions.
Uzbekistan, with mostly mild deficits occurring in the eastern regions.

South Asia is expected to experience generally mild to moderate precipitation surpluses.

Areas forecast to experience surpluses include:

Northeastern India, with moderate to severe anomalies spreading through the provinces of Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and West Bengal.
Northeastern Pakistan, near the city of Lahore.

Mostly normal to mild conditions are expected in many regions of Southeast Asia and the Pacific, with intense deficits forecast for the following regions:

Central Indonesia, in the western areas of the island of Java and Sulawesi. Further south, western areas of West Kalimantan are expected to observe similar deficits.
Borneo, in the Malaysian states of Sarawak and Sabah.

Surpluses of mild to moderate intensity are anticipated in:

Papua New Guinea, throughout the entirety of the country.
Eastern regions of Papua.

East Asia can anticipate pockets of moderate to severe anomalies, both surplus and deficits, across China.

Deficits are anticipated in:

Western China, in western regions of the Xinjiang province, near the Kashgar Prefecture.
Northeastern China, in east-central areas of the Heilongjiang province.
Japan, with mild to moderate deficits occurring throughout the country.

Surpluses are forecast in:

Southeastern China, with mostly moderate surpluses throughout the entirety of Tibet.
Southern China, with mild to moderate surpluses occurring in small southern areas of the Sichuan province.

Australia is expected to endure widespread surpluses, mostly of moderate to severe intensity. Moderate deficits are expected to occur in the continent’s northwestern regions. The forecast for New Zealand is for normal conditions to mild anomalies in its northern and southern areas.

Moderate to severe surpluses are expected in:

Northern West Australia, with the most intense surpluses occurring near the towns of Derby and Broome. These surpluses move further inland in areas north of the town of Kumarina.
Northeastern South Australia, with moderate to severe anomalies appearing east of the Simpson Desert National Reserve.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

ABOUT THIS BLOG POST
Each week, ISciences processes an ensemble of 28 seasonal temperature and precipitation forecasts issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2). We present our results in a proprietary weekly report titled Global Water Monitor and Forecast: Precipitation and Temperature Outlook. This blog post summarizes our Outlook released Month 2, 2023 which includes forecasts for Month 2023 through Month 2023 based on NOAA CFSv2 forecasts issued Month 25 through Month 31, 2023.

Technical details:

Each CFSv2 forecast is bias corrected by:
- Constructing probability density functions from CFSv2 hindcasts.
- Fitting the hindcast probability distribution functions to a generalized extreme value distribution.
- Using an inverse lookup to an extreme value distribution fitted to the observed temperature and precipitation record (Fan & van den Dool 2008, Chen et al. 2002).
The map colors depict the return period of the median forecast anomaly.
Regions where the interquartile range of the ensemble spans both above normal and below normal conditions are hashed as having uncertain direction.
Regions where the interquartile range of the ensemble divided by the median forecast is large (>0.4) are hashed as having uncertain magnitude.
Results are reported in terms of return period using a 1950-2009 baseline.

Subscribe to our monthly Water Watch List

Search blog categories

Search blog tags