South America: Pockets of deficits in Bolivarian Nations, N Brazil

25 August 2023

THE BIG PICTURE

The 12-month forecast ending in April 2024 anticipates intense deficits to occur throughout several western countries, as well as northern regions of Brazil. Transitional conditions are expected in northern regions of the Guianas.

The following regions are expected to experience exceptional deficits:

Northeastern Colombia, in areas near the Vichada National Park.
Pockets of northern Brazil, in northern portions of Barcelos municipality, as well as in coastal regions of the states of Amapa and Para.
Southwestern Bolivia, throughout the country’s southern highlands region.
Northern Chile, throughout the regions of Tarapaca and the Antofagasta province.

Severe to extreme deficits are predicted to appear in the following countries:

Northwestern Venezuela, in the states of Apure and Portuguesa.
Uruguay, near coastal regions of the Maldonado Department.
Argentina, with the most concentrated anomalies appearing in the Entre Rios and Corrientes provinces.
Peru, appearing in pockets throughout central regions of the country.

Moderate to severe surplus is anticipated in:

Western coastal regions of Ecuador and Peru.

Transitional conditions are expected to emerge in:

The Guianas, in northeastern Guyana and northwestern Suriname.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through October 2023 anticipates severe deficits to arise in several areas of South America, especially in northern Brazil and the Guianas. Widespread deficits in Peru are expected to continue through the southern Bolivarian Nations, continuing further south into eastern Argentina and southern Uruguay. Western coastal regions of Ecuador are expected to endure continued moderate to severe surplus.

From November 2023 through January 2024, most intense anomalies are expected to disappear, with the exception of southern Peru, western Bolivia, and northern Chile. Similarly intense deficits are anticipated in northern coastal regions of the Guianas. In northern Argentina and southern Brazil, moderate to severe surpluses are expected.

The forecast for the final months – February 2024 through April 2024 – anticipates deficits to persist and slightly expand in magnitude in northern Chile, as well as in northern coastal regions of the Guianas. Moderate to severe surplus is expected to occur in northern Argentina, Uruguay, and southernmost regions of Brazil.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
On August 1st, El Nino-related complications caused container ships to be denied entry into the Panama Canal. Due to prolonged drought in the area, the Panama Canal Authority has reduced maximum ship weights and daily ship travel in an effort to conserve water. The frequency of intensified El Nino drying patterns have risen significantly during the last 25 years. The Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute’s (STRI) Steven Paton stated that, if it continues, "it will be increasingly difficult for (the Panama Canal) to guarantee that the largest ships are going to be able to get through.” Maritime transportation experts fear such events could happen more frequently, dreading the effect it will have on the ocean shipping industry, which constitutes 80% of all global trade. Restrictions at the canal started earlier this year, affecting about 170 countries and many types of goods, including copper and fresh cherries exported from Chile, as well as beef from Brazil.

A pipeline from the San José River dam to the Santa Lucía River has become operational in an effort to provide potable water to Montevideo, the capital of Uruguay. According to state-run water company OSE, the pumps are already active and provide a “flow of 2,000 cubic meters per hour of fresh water reinforcement to Aguas Corrientes' drinking water treatment process.” The Santa Lucía River saw substantial decrease in flow as a result of extreme drought since last year. Rainfall from June and July of this year helped water levels rise, but it still remains far from the usual maximum of 67 million cubic meters.

Bolivia’s weather service Senhami reports that water levels in Lake Titicaca are nearly ten inches away from its lowest levels ever recorded. Senhami has measured water levels of the lake since 1974, and recorded its record low in 1996. Locals have since seen boats and docks become isolated and stranded on dry land, with fishermen voicing major concern over the lack of sufficient habitable water for fish to survive. "So where are the fish going to spawn?" asks local fisherman Edwin Katari.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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