Europe: Surplus persists in S Europe, W Balkans

25 August 2023

THE BIG PICTURE

The 12-month forecast ending in April 2024 indicates that while the majority of Continental Europe should anticipate mostly normal conditions and mild anomalies, intense surplus will persist in southern Europe and Finland, with deficits appearing in western European countries and the Baltics.

Extreme to exceptional surplus is anticipated in the following countries:

Italy, along much of the country’s eastern and southern coasts, with the most intense anomalies appearing in the region of Emilia-Romagna.
Northeastern Slovenia, throughout regions along the country’s northern border shared with southern Austria.
Finland, widespread throughout its Western, Southern, and Eastern provinces.

The following countries should expect severe to extreme deficits:

Southern Germany, in southern regions of the state of Bavaria.
Southern Latvia, throughout the Semigallia region.
Northern Norway, in the county of Troms og Finnmark, which continues east into western regions of Murmansk Oblast, Russia.
Northeastern Poland, near the city of Olsztyn.
Throughout the Swedish island of Gotland.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through October 2023 expects exceptional surpluses in southern Europe to resume in southern and eastern coastal regions of Europe but decrease in magnitude, as well as small areas of the Balkans. Moderate to severe deficits are expected to continue in southeastern Germany, and emerge in eastern Romania and Moldova. In northern Norway, intense deficits will persist in the county of Troms og Finnmark, as will severe to extreme surpluses across southern Finland.

From November 2023 through January 2024, intense deficits are expected to dissipate throughout Continental Europe, with moderate surpluses continuing in Finland and east-central Norway. Most of Continental Europe can anticipate mostly normal conditions.

The forecast for the final months – February 2024 through April 2024 – expects continued normal conditions and mild anomalies, with moderate surpluses emerging in Switzerland, Austria, and southwestern Germany.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
In Italy, the town of Bardonecchia experienced intense flooding and mudslides as the Merdovine River overflowed. Experts estimate that the flood was caused by heavy rainfall, causing mountain streams to overflow. No deaths of missing residents were reported. However, the town was significantly damaged from the floods, displacing roughly 120 citizens. Fire and rescue teams were also deployed to rescue residents from mobile homes.

In Germany, the ancient trees of Sanssouci are at risk of death due to drought and rising temperatures. The trees, which are centuries old, cover over 500 square meters of forest in the city of Potsdam. Forest manager Sven Hannemann estimated the trees have another two years before they die. In 600 years, the trees withstood intense storms and winter temperatures, but are expected to succumb to intensive dry conditions. "In 2018 when it was very dry, it suffered a real shock like many woody plants here in the park," Hannemann said. "And since then it's actually been shrinking."

As of August 14th, 30,000 locals of southern France were reported to have experienced disruption of their water supply, with roughly 67 communes currently relying on water received by tankers and 18 from bottled sources. The drought has been worsened by compounding factors, such as greenhouse gas emissions, as well as the current El Niño weather pattern. Recently, the European Drought Agency categorized a third of Europe as drought affected, with 10 percent of Europe in a state of critical drought.

Over 600 firefighters are currently battling three major wildfires in Greece, two of which have been present for several days. One particularly large fire spread across northeastern Greece, in the northeastern regions of Evros and Alexandroupolis, and is estimated to have caused 20 deaths. The blaze has burned through vast areas of forest and destroyed homes in the outlying areas of the city of Alexandroupolis. As of August 27th, nearly 300 firefighters, and accompanying aircraft were deployed to extinguish the fire. The EU’s Copernicus Emergency Management Service stated that the wildfire had ruined 190,000 acres of land and had 120 active hotspots.

On August 17th, temperature and drought-induced wildfires spread across the Spanish Canary island of Tenerife, displacing nearly 7,600 locals and burning thousands of acres of land. Nearly 250 firefighters and army personnel were deployed to combat the fires. The day of the incident, Regional President Fernando Clavijo announced that the perimeter of the fire grew to 19 miles. “This is probably the most complicated blaze we have had on the Canary Islands, if not ever, at least in the last 40 years,” he continued. As of August 17th, Temperatures in the Canary Islands peaked at more than 104 degrees Fahrenheit.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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