Australia & New Zealand: Surplus emerges in N Australia

Australia & New Zealand: Surplus emerges in N Australia

31 August 2023

THE BIG PICTURE

The 12-month forecast ending in April 2024 anticipates mostly normal conditions across Australia and New Zealand, with some isolated instances of intense deficits in western and eastern coastal regions, and surpluses in north-central provinces. 

These areas should expect extreme to exceptional surplus:

  • Central Northern Territory, widespread in the Ranken Region and spreading into surrounding areas.

  • Western to southwestern Queensland, appearing near Mount Isa City and spreading further south into regions near the Munga-Thirri National Park. 

Exceptional deficits are anticipated in: 

  • Westernmost coastal regions of Western Australia, in areas west of the Toolonga National Reserve. 

  • Throughout most of New Caledonia.

Isolated instances of moderate to extreme deficits are expected in the following regions: 

  • Southwestern Western Australia, widespread throughout most of the Great Southern Region. 

  • Eastern coastal regions of New South Wales, in the Mid-Coast Council local government area.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through October 2023 anticipates that intense deficits will continue in eastern coastal regions of New South Wales, in the Mid-Coast Council local government area, as well as further north, near Brisbane. Intense surpluses are expected to continue throughout eastern Northern Territory and western Queensland, with some transitional conditions appearing nearby in the Yorke Peninsula and in coastal regions near the Dampier Peninsula. Pockets of exceptional deficit are forecast in coastal regions near the Drysdale River and near Kakadu National Park. 

From November 2023 through January 2024 expects most intense anomalies in Australia to vanish, with small areas of moderate surplus remaining in northeastern Northern Territory and western Queensland, throughout areas near Mount Isa City. Deficits in New Caledonia are expected to persist but lessen in intensity, becoming moderate to severe anomalies. 

The forecast for the final months – February 2024 through April 2024 – indicates that normal conditions will continue across the region, and intense anomalies near Mount Isa City will subside, becoming mild deficits. Deficits in New Caledonia are expected to increase in intensity, with exceptional deficits returning in most of the territory.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
A recent study by NASA reported on transformation of large areas throughout northern Australia’s deserts due to intense, repeated rainfall between October 2022 and April 2023, which catalyzed an exceptional period of vegetation growth throughout the area. A series of images released by NASA depicted water surpluses in seasonally dry channels of the Georgina River and Eyre Creek following weeks of heavy rains in northern Queensland. While seasonal floods in these areas are typical, this particular period occurred during the emergence of La Niña in tropical areas of the Pacific Ocean, as well as during successive events of intense rainfall, which prolonged the overall effects of flooding. The subsequent growth of vegetation slowed down the flow of water in the following rain events, causing floods which affected both local communities and ecosystems, flooding cattle farms and isolating towns. 

Authorities in South Australia stated that while flow of the Murray River has increased, the Bureau of Meteorology is forecasting a drier and warmer spring. This follows the river’s intense flooding event In late 2022, during which floodwaters swept its way down the Murray-Darling Basin, displacing locals and causing damage to nearby areas. Due to the floods, authorities emphasized that there was no need to be alarmed by the increased flows. Department for Environment and Water operations officer, Kimberley Williamson, cited the heightened water levels as a result of a wet winter. "There's been above average rainfall in June over the upper Murray catchments… and there's also been pre-releases from storages in the upper catchment like the Hume Dam," she said.

The governments of California and Australia recently signed a new Memorandum of Understanding to dedicate support on climate action and transition into clean energy. The memorandum creates a framework for cooperation on climate action and ecosystem protection. Areas of focus noted during the announcement included development of eco-friendly methods of transportation, climate adaptation initiatives, development of clean energy supply chains and technologies. The memorandum will also help Australia and California address immediate priorities of adaptation to changing climate and investing in infrastructure resilience to climate risks such as heatwaves, droughts, wildfires, and flooding.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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