Africa: Deficits continue in N, S Africa

31 August 2023

THE BIG PICTURE

The 12-month forecast ending in April 2024 indicates that exceptional deficits will persist throughout much of northern and south-central Africa, with surpluses in the continent’s southeastern countries.

The following countries can expect extreme to exceptional deficits:

Libya, throughout most regions of the country, except in northwestern regions near the city of Tripoli, which will observe primarily normal conditions. These anomalies continue west into southwestern and central Algeria.
The majority of central to northern Niger, as well as northern Chad, throughout its Tibesti, Fada, and Am-Djarass region. Similar anomalies appear in western and eastern Sudan near the Al Malha region, and into areas along the western border of Ethiopia.
North-central and western Mauritania, in the Zouerat and Dakhlet Nouadhibou regions, which continue into the Salam region of northern Mali. Further west, similar deficits are expected in western coastal regions of Morocco and West Sahara.
Eastern Egypt, in the Red Sea Governorate.
Botswana, throughout most central and northern regions, with anomalies moving further east into western to central Zimbabwe.

Severe deficits are expected in several countries, including:

South Sudan, throughout much of the country.
Zambia, throughout the country’s Southern Province.
Central Democratic Republic of Congo, in areas north of the De La Salonga-Nord.
Throughout northeastern Uganda and western Kenya.

Surpluses of varying intensity are expected in the following countries:

Tanzania, with moderate to severe surpluses appearing throughout most of the country. Exceptional surpluses appear in southwestern areas in the country’s Ruvuma region, continuing south into northwestern Mozambique.
Southern Mozambique, in the Gaza provinces, as well as surrounding areas.
Central Botswana, near western regions of the Kweneng District.
Malawi, with moderate to severe surplus throughout most of the country, continuing into southernmost Zimbabwe.
Ghana, with severe surpluses occurring throughout the country, spreading east into the Abengourou Department in Ivory Coast.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through October 2023 indicates that moderate to severe surpluses in Tanzania and Mozambique will intensify, becoming extreme to exceptional. Deficits in Botswana are expected to disappear, though exceptional deficits are expected to persist throughout northern Africa, specifically in northern Mali, Algeria, northeastern Niger, and Libya. Exceptional deficits will also emerge in northeastern Democratic Republic of Congo, spreading further east into Uganda and western Kenya. Nearby, moderate to severe deficits are expected to linger in South Sudan, as well as extreme to exceptional deficits in western and central Ethiopia.

From November 2023 through January 2024, intense surpluses in Africa’s southeastern countries will lessen in magnitude and intensity, with exceptional anomalies in Zimbabwe and northern Mozambique becoming mild to moderate anomalies. In most other areas of Africa, mostly normal conditions to mild anomalies are expected, with exceptions such as moderate deficits throughout South Sudan, moderate to severe deficits in central Ethiopia, and exceptional deficits in isolated areas of northern Somalia.

The forecast for the final months – February 2024 through April 2024 – mostly normal conditions and mild anomalies will continue across the continent, with moderate surpluses persisting in Zimbabwe. Additionally, severe deficits are expected in northern Sudan and northeastern Niger. Isolated pockets of transitional conditions are expected in western Guinea.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
The World Health Organization (WHO) recently reported that climate change is exacerbating the global upsurge of cholera. According to WHO, as climate change intensifies, tropical storms become more frequent, powerful, and wetter. The detrimental impacts of these stronger storms lead to devastating flash flooding, the results of which were exemplified during the 2022 cholera outbreak in Africa, with Cyclone Ana and Cyclone Gombe impacting Madagascar, Malawi, and Mozambique. These storms led to flash floods spreading sewage into lakes and boreholes, as well as destruction of pipelines, sanitation infrastructure, and roads essential for the delivery of supplies. UNICEF public health emergency specialist Raoul Kamadjeu confirmed that these conditions contributed to the outbreaks, calling them “risk multipliers.”

The United Nations World Food Programme stated that it has resumed food distribution in areas of Ethiopia’s Tigray region following a three month pause. Over 20 million people need food assistance in Ethiopia, mainly due to drought in the Horn of Africa, thought to be the worst in decades. The WFP had been providing emergency food assistance to nearly six million of them. It said it started testing and verifying new measures on July 31 to deliver food assistance in four districts of Tigray to just over 100,000 eligible people.

Water engineers from Oxfam International are having to drill deeper and costlier boreholes to combat drought in East Africa. Betty Ojeny, a Water and Sanitation Lead at Oxfam working in East Africa stated that “One in five boreholes we dig now in the region I work, end up dry or with water that is unfit for humans to drink. We have to dig deeper wells, through baked soils, which means more expensive breakages. This is happening at a time when donor funding for water is declining.” “We’re having to use expensive desalination technologies that are sometimes glitchy, especially in the more hostile terrains where we have to work,” Ojeny continued. “We’re seeing climate change biting now and these problems are only going to get worse.” Nafkote Dabi, Oxfam Global Climate Justice Lead at Oxfam, said “While global warming is being caused by oil, coal and gas, its harm is fundamentally being experienced as a global water crisis. This poses one of the biggest threats to humanity and will lead to more hunger, more disease and more displacement, especially for the countries and communities least prepared for climate change.”

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

Subscribe to our monthly Water Watch List

Search blog categories

Search blog tags