Central Asia & Russia: Intense deficits in European Russia

Central Asia & Russia: Intense deficits in European Russia

05 September 2023

THE BIG PICTURE

The 12-month forecast ending in April 2024 anticipates widespread deficits in European Russia, with some pockets of intense surplus in central regions of the country. Widespread deficits are also expected in Central Asia. 

The following areas should expect extreme to exceptional deficits:

  • Throughout most of European Russia, including areas of the Zapolyarny District, into the Komi Republic and the federal subject of Kirov Oblast. 

  • Eastern Russia, throughout southern regions of the Sakha Republic. 

  • Western Russia, throughout the Lovozersky District.

  • South-central and eastern Kazakhstan, in areas north of the Aral Sea, near the city of Kyzylorda, and within the Karaganda Region.

  • Central and eastern Uzbekistan, within the Navoiy and Surxondaryo regions, as well as in south-eastern Turkmenistan, in the Mary Province. 

Moderate to exceptional surplus is anticipated in: 

  • Central Russia, in the northern regions of Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug.

  • Central Russia, in southern areas of Krasnoyarsk Krai, appearing in the Evenkiysky and Katangsky districts. 

  • Western Russia, throughout the Republic of Karelia.

Transitional conditions are expected in: 

  • Central Russia, in the northern regions of Irkutsk Oblast.

  • Northern Russia, in northwestern coastal regions of Taymyrsky Dolgano-Nenetsky District, near the Leskino area. 

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through October 2023 indicates that intense, widespread deficits are expected to continue in European Russia in the Taymyrsky Dolgano-Nenetsky District, as well as southern regions of the Sakha Republic. Deficits emerge near the settlement of Novy Port and in northern coastal regions of the Nenets Autonomous Okrug. Most deficits in Central Asia are expected to dissipate, becoming near normal conditions. Surplus will persist in central Russia in northern regions of Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug.

From November 2023 through January 2024, deficits in European Russia are expected to lessen in magnitude, but will persist in the Tamyrsky Dolgano-Nenetsky District, near the settlement of Novy Port, and in southern regions of the Sakha Republic. In Central Asia, intense surplus is expected to arise in southern Kazakhstan, eastern Turkmenistan, and eastern Uzbekistan. 

The forecast for the final months – February 2024 through April 2024 – anticipates that deficits in European Russia are expected to persist, as well as near the settlement of Novy Port. Further east, deficits are expected to persist in southern regions of Sakha Republic. Southernmost regions of Russia along the borders of Kazakhstan and Mongolia can also expect mild to moderate surplus. In Central Asia, moderate surpluses are expected in eastern regions of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
A region-wide emergency is anticipated in Kazakhstan’s Zhambyl region due to drought in six districts affecting water supplies used for crop irrigation. Drought in the area – the worst drought seen in 50 years – has subsequently killed a substantial portion of sugar beets, while significantly hindering adequate growth of surviving crops. According to local farmers, 50 to 80% of crops in the region were destroyed. “...This beet should be half a kilogram,” reported one farmer, “You see, now it weighs a maximum of 150 grams. The more water it contains, the better, softer, sugarier it is. If the weather is bad, I won’t plant anything else. It’s money down the drain,” said the head of the farm Demirbek Zuufov. Experts anticipate that this will cause a subsequent increase in the cost of both food and sugar, as well as an inhibition of next year’s sowing season. 

As of August 31st, a three day long atmospheric drought has been observed in the Novorossiysk region of Russia – a drought that results from prolonged evaporation exceeding precipitation levels. The drought currently occurs on the coast of the Black Sea, from Anapa to Tuapse. The drought has affected the health of local agriculture, such as vineyards and fruit trees. In other areas of the Novorossiysk region, the atmospheric drought has been present for much longer, as long as August 11th in some places.
Rice farmers in Kazakhstan are voicing concern over the prognosis of their rice crops during an intense heatwave which catalyzed drought in southern regions of the country. While some are worried that the drought will have a negative impact on the provision of rice, Director of the Department of Agri-Food Markets and Processing of Agricultural Products of the Ministry of Agriculture Shaimerden Akhmetov announced an assurance that there would be no rice shortage. He stated that Kazakhstan consumes only half of the rice produced, and the other half is exported. He stressed that Kazakhstan consumes only half of the grown rice. “The rest of the country exports. Therefore, there is no threat to be left without rice,” stated Akhmetov. “As far as the akimat of the Kyzylorda region provides us with information, the rice crops there were practically not affected by the drought. A satisfactory harvest is expected, at the annual level.”

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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