ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List June 2023

ISCIENCES WORLDWIDE WATER WATCH LIST June 2023

16 June 2023

This map presents a selection of regions likely to encounter significant water anomalies during the one year period beginning in March 2023 and running through February 2024 using 3 months of observed temperature and precipitation data and 9 months of forecast data.

The synopsis that follows provides highlights of regional water forecasts. Regional details are available in ISciences Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List June 16, 2023 (pdf).

United States: The forecast indicates that intense surplus will continue throughout western and southwestern states until November 2023 or longer.

Canada: Widespread, intense deficits are anticipated to continue throughout most provinces until August 2023 or longer.

Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean: The forecast indicates that extreme to exceptional surplus will continue near the Yucatan Peninsula until August 2023 or longer.

South America: Exceptional deficits are expected throughout the continent until November 2023 or longer, with most areas in the Southern Cone expected to transition to mostly normal conditions.

Europe: Deficits are expected to be widespread throughout Continental Europe until August 2023 or longer, with surpluses arising in some Balkan countries.

Africa: The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits are expected to arise in southern countries around August 2023.

Middle East: Intense transitional conditions are expected to continue in central countries of the Middle East, persisting until November 2023 or longer.

Central Asia and Russia: The forecast indicates anomalies of varying intensity across the region, with surpluses primarily in northern and central regions continuing until November 2023 or longer.

South Asia: Intense surplus and transitional conditions are expected to continue in Pakistan throughout February 2024 or longer.

Southeast Asia and the Pacific:  The forecast indicates moderate to severe deficits to be widespread throughout much of the region until November 2023 or longer.

East Asia: Intense surplus throughout northwestern China is expected to continue throughout November 2023 or longer.

Australia & New Zealand: The forecast indicates mostly mild deficits across Australia, with exceptional surplus persisting in its southeastern regions until February 2024 or longer.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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