South America: Widespread deficits expected to persist throughout

21 June 2023

THE BIG PICTURE

The 12-month forecast ending in February indicates widespread deficits of varying intensity throughout much of South America. Deficits of the highest intensity are expected across the Guianas, Bolivarian Nations, Chile, and in pockets throughout Brazil.

Extreme to exceptional deficits are expected in the following areas:

Venezuela, throughout much of the northern and eastern regions of the country. These intense deficits continue further east throughout the Guianas.
Central to southern Peru, along the country’s western coast, as well as near the Isconahua Indigenous Reserve. Similarly intense deficits appear further south in west-central Bolivia, near the city of Cochabamba.
Chile, widespread throughout the entire country. Central areas near the city of Santiago can anticipate moderate to severe deficits, while the rest of the country is expected to endure exceptional deficits.
East-central and northeastern Argentina, near the cities of Buenos Aires and throughout the province of Corrientes. Nearby, much of Uruguay can expect similarly intense anomalies.
Brazil, with the northern states of Roraima and Amapa experiencing exceptional deficits, with widespread pockets appearing in the state of Minas Gerais. These pockets continue throughout the country, appearing in the states of Mato Grosso, Rondônia, and Para.

Severe to exceptional surplus is anticipated in:

Southeast Peru, throughout the Sandia Province and into Bolivia’s La Paz Department.
North Colombia, throughout the La Guajira department.
Northeastern Argentina, along the western border of the Catamarca Province.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through August 2023 anticipates widespread deficits to continue throughout the continent, appearing throughout the Guianas, Bolivarian Nations, and eastern regions of the Southern Cone. Exceptional deficits are expected to continue throughout northwestern and eastern Venezuela, central and southern Colombia, Peru, Uruguay, and Chile. Pockets of intense deficit are expected to linger throughout much of Brazil, as well as exceptional surplus in southeastern Peru, northwestern Bolivia, and northwestern Argentina.

From September through November 2023, most of the deficits in central to southern Brazil are expected to dissipate. Intense deficit anomalies are expected to continue in the northern regions of the country, as well as throughout the Guianas. These anomalies continue throughout Venezuela, Colombia, and Peru. Nearby, exceptional deficits are anticipated to persist in northern Chile, as are exceptional deficits in northwestern Argentina.

The forecast for the final months – December 2023 through February 2024 – anticipates most intense anomalies to subside throughout the country. However, exceptional deficits are expected to persist in northern Chile and west-central Venezuela, as well as moderate to severe deficits throughout the Guianas.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS

Multiple cities in Venezuela are experiencing power loss due to low water levels in hydroelectric dams – Venezuela’s main source of power. The outages are occurring during the country’s intense heat wave, leaving residents without electricity to help cope with the extreme heat, as well as inhibiting factories and utility companies. "It is inhumane that in a city like this they cut our power during the hottest hours," said 42-year-old Mariana Barboza in Maracaibo, where temperatures can reach over 100 degrees Fahrenheit. Citizens of Caracas reported power outages lasting for at least four hours a day.

Chile’s government recently approved the extension of Los Bronces, a major copper mine near Santiago. The decision was met with concern from environmental activists and local and regional authorities due to air quality and dust pollution concerns, as well as catalyzing the melting of local glaciers, a key water supply for the city. As Chile is currently facing a decade-long mega-drought, concerns have been raised in regard to the safety of the region’s water supply. Los Bronces sits near major glaciers which provide much of the clean water for locals. Camilo Rada, a glaciologist at the University of Magallanes, explained the important role of glaciers in supplying water; “When it rains in the winter, it falls as snow on the glaciers. The water gets stored in the mountains as it turns into ice. Then in the summer, when it’s dry and warm in the capital, glaciers release water. And given the mega-drought we have in Chile, these glaciers are essential.”

In order to cope with water shortages amid a three-year drought, Uruguayan officials recently began supplementing public drinking water from new saltier reservoirs, as previous supplies were primarily freshwater from nearby lakes. Maximum sodium level limits in the country’s water system were raised to 440 milligrams per liter, a controversial 160% increase from previous years. “The historic levels of sodium in Montevideo water were between 30 and 40 milligrams per liter,” Montevideo Mayor Carolina Cosse said in a press conference in May. “And now, the average is 10 times higher than this." “The water’s not potable,” said local teacher Paula Padilla. “So, you have to start to buy water, but that’s not viable for everyone. There are families with six children or more."

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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