Europe: Intense deficits persist in northern Europe, baltics

22 June 2023

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in February for Europe anticipates widespread deficits across much of Continental Europe, as well as some non-contiguous countries in the region.

Exceptional deficits are expected in the following areas:

Central Sweden, in the provinces of Dalarna, southern Jamtland, Vasterbotten, and Gavleborg.
Northern coastal regions of Poland, Germany, and western coastal regions of Denmark’s Syddanmark region.
Southwestern France, north of the Dordogne River.
Southern Portugal, in the cities of Lisbon, southern Evora, and Beja.
Throughout the Baltics.

Severe to extreme deficits are anticipated in:

Southwestern France, in the Limousin region.
Northeastern Spain, in eastern coastal regions of Catalonia.
Northern United Kingdom, throughout regions near the Caledonian Canal.

Severe to exceptional surplus is forecast in:

Northern Ukraine, along much of the country’s northern border.
Northernmost Finland, near Lake Inari, moving north into the Norwegian region of Troms og Finnmark.
Southeast Serbia, crossing over into northern Kosovo.
Throughout northern Croatia and Slovenia.
Eastern Italy, along the coast of the Adriatic Sea.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through August 2023 anticipates exceptional deficits to persist in central Sweden, the Baltics, northern United Kingdom, and west-central France. In Spain, deficits are expected to somewhat lessen into mostly severe deficits with some central areas observing extreme to exceptional deficits. Much of the remaining regions of France are expected to endure severe to extreme deficits, which continue nearby in western coastal regions of Italy. Further south in Italy, eastern coastal regions, as well as areas along the coast of the Italian Peninsula. Northern coastal regions of Germany, Poland, and Lithuania can anticipate similarly intense deficits. Severe to exceptional surplus is expected to persist further south in the western Balkans, specifically in Croatia, Slovenia, and Serbia.

From September through November 2023, deficits in Continental Europe are expected to lessen in intensity, with most regions experiencing mild deficits to normal conditions. Some areas can expect moderate deficits, such as the Baltics, Belarus, and southern Sweden. Widespread, moderate surplus is expected to continue throughout Italy and Serbia.

The forecast for the final months – December 2023 through February 2024 – expects most intense anomalies throughout Europe to subside, with exceptional deficits continuing in central Sweden and moderate surplus appearing in Switzerland.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) recently reported that Europe is the fastest-warming continent and warned that it should brace for more heat waves caused by climate change. According to a new report, Europe was some 2.3 degrees Celsius hotter in 2022 than in pre-industrial times. In the State of the Climate in Europe 2022 report by WMO and the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service, extreme heat, crop-withering drought, record sea-surface temperatures, and unprecedented glacier melt were documented throughout the continent. Europe, which has been warming at twice the global average since the 1980s, saw its hottest summer on record in 2022, with countries including France, Germany, Italy, Portugal, Spain and the United Kingdom also experiencing their warmest year on record.

A lack of rain and rising temperatures have led to dangerously dry conditions in northern Europe. Wildfires have been reported in Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Finland, and Scotland, which is a rare occurrence, as summers in the regions are usually cool and wet. “These countries are relatively new to drought problems,” said Niclas Hjerdt, head of hydrological forecasting at Sweden’s weather agency SMHI. “We usually have an excess of water up here in northern Europe and Scandinavia. So there isn’t this historic knowledge of how to deal with drought situations that you could find in countries further south in Europe.”

On June 14th, Environment Minister Christophe Béchu reported that two-thirds of French water tables are below normal levels for June. Béchu highlighted the need to conserve more water particularly in southern regions such as the Rhone valley and Mediterranean coast. "We have two-thirds of the country where the water table is below normal levels, 66 percent is huge," he added, pointing to nearly 15 regions where major restrictions on water use have already been implemented. Just last year, wildfires scorched 72,000 hectares across 50 of metropolitan France's 96 départments, and forced about 60,000 people to evacuate.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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