Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Deficits to persist in Mex, C America

Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: deficits to persist in Mex, C America

22 June 2023

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in February anticipates deficits of varying intensity to persist throughout regions of Mexico and Central America, with intense surplus appearing in areas of the Caribbean.

Deficits of moderate to severe intensity are expected in the following regions: 

  • Central Baja California, with extreme to exceptional deficits in central regions of the San Quintin municipality. 

  • Throughout southern Mexico, with moderate deficits appearing in southern areas of the states of Chihuahua and Nayarit. These anomalies continue further east into Guerroro, eastern Veracruz, and Chiapas. Additionally, severe to extreme deficits are expected in the state of Yucatan, as well as throughout the Yucatan Peninsula. 

  • Throughout Guatemala, Belize, and El Salvador. 

  • Haiti, with the exceptional anomalies appearing throughout the Sud-Est and Ouest departments.

Small areas of transitional conditions are expected in:

  • Central Baja California Sur, throughout southern regions of the Mulegé Municipality.

  • Northwest Mexico, isolated in central areas of the state of Sonora. 

Exceptional surplus is forecast in:

  • Throughout the Bahamas, appearing throughout the island of Andros.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through August 2023 anticipates anomalies of severe intensity to appear in regions of Veracruz, Tabasco, Campeche, and northern coastal regions of the Yucatan Peninsula. These deficits continue south, crossing into northern Guatemala and throughout Belize. Northern Honduras can expect a combination of severe deficit and mild transitional conditions. Transitional conditions are expected to continue in central Baja California Sur and northwestern Mexico, as is exceptional surplus in the Bahamas. 

From September through November 2023, deficits throughout Mexico and Central America are expected to weaken, becoming mostly mild deficits. However, severe to extreme deficits are anticipated to linger in southern Belize and El Salvador. Similarly intense deficits are expected to appear in eastern Honduras. 

The forecast for the final months – December 2023 through February 2024 – anticipates deficits across Mexico to further lessen in intensity, with exception to southern coastal regions of the state of Oaxaca, where exceptional deficits are expected to emerge. Similarly intense anomalies are expected in southern Guatemala, western Honduras, and throughout El Salvador. Exceptional surplus in the Bahamas are expected to continue, with similarly intense surplus appearing in central Baja California Sur.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
The recent drought in Chiapas, Mexico, has significantly lowered water levels at the Nezahualcoyotl reservoir, consequentially revealing the Temple of Quechula – a Roman Catholic church built in the 16th century and later abandoned in the 1700s. The church has appeared at least twice before, in 2002 and in 2015. The dwindling water levels are affecting the livelihoods of local fishermen, with Miguel Garcia Aguilera, the head of the local fishing association, stating "With the drought that we have, the dam level is very low. The water is very hot, the temperature is very hot, so what it does is kill the fish." 

The Guatemalan government is expected to declare an electrical emergency due to lack of hydroelectric power from lack of rain. The declaration of an emergency will focus all of the sector’s ability to guarantee supply of electricity, with some actions leading to suspension of exports and maintenance of generators, though the area is experiencing a heat wave and electrical consumption is higher in all areas. Coal, gas, and bunker (fuel that normally comes from the first stage of the refining process) are currently being used for electrical supply due to intense drought in the area.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reported the emergence of El Nino over the past month, as the tropical Pacific sea surface is reportedly notably warmer than average. In Mexico, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development recently announced that a recent spike in bird deaths were linked to the warming ocean waters. This same phenomenon has also been reported from Peru, Chile and other latitudes of the world when an El Nino occurs, which is every two to seven years and is characterized by sea surface temperatures being higher than average around the equator in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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