Southeast Asia & the Pacific: Intense deficits throughout Mainland SE Asia

Southeast Asia & the Pacific: Intense deficits throughout Mainland SE Asia

25 July 2023

THE BIG PICTURE
The forecast ending in March 2024 indicates that while much of Indonesia and the rest of the Pacific can anticipate mild anomalies and normal conditions, Mainland Southeast Asia is expected to experience widespread severe to exceptional deficits throughout much of the region. 

Exceptional deficits are predicted in:

  • Northern and western Thailan­­d, appearing throughout the Chiang Rai, Phayao, and Nan provinces, as well as throughout the Phrae province, continuing south into central Myanmar.

  • Central Laos, within the Bolikhamsai and Khammouane provinces, and the Vientiane Prefecture, which expands into the Loei, Nong Khai, Udon Thani, Sakon Nakhon, and Bueng Kan provinces of northeastern Thailand. 

  • Western Cambodia, in areas near the Roneam Daun Sam Wildlife Sanctuary. 

  • Northern Vietnam, across the Son La and Dien Bien provinces. 

The following areas are expected to experience severe to extreme deficits: 

  • Central Vietnam, near the city of Vinh. 

  • Northern and southern Myanmar, near the Manton region and southern coastal regions of the Ayeyarwady Division.  

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through September 2023 anticipates exceptional deficits across Mainland Southeast Asia to decrease in severity and magnitude, but continue in northern Thailand, northern Vietnam, and central coastal regions of the Gulf of Thailand. Small coastal areas in western Java can expect deficits to linger, as well as in southern Sumatra. In southernmost Papua and Papua New Guinea, extreme to exceptional surplus is expected to persist, but over a smaller area. 

From October through December 2023, much of mainland Southeast Asia is predicted to observe normal conditions. Some occurrences of moderate to severe deficits are expected in various islands of Indonesia, including western Java, Sulawesi, and throughout the Banda Arc. Additionally, moderate to severe deficits in Papua and Papua New Guinea are expected to emerge.

The forecast for the final months – January 2024 through March 2024 – anticipates continued normal conditions in Mainland Southeast Asia, with the exception of exceptional deficits reappearing in western Thailand. Most Indonesian islands can expect mild to moderate surpluses, and the Philippines can expect widespread moderate deficits, as well as southern Papua New Guinea.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
The presence of El Niño-related weather conditions in Thailand have increased sugar prices and are expected to persist. Thailand, the third largest sugar producer in the world, is experiencing an intense prolonged drought, causing sugar prices to rise continually. “Thailand is preparing contingency plans to deal with a potential drought that could last years and squeeze global supplies of sugar and rice,” a report said. “Rainfall across the nation may be as much as 10% below average this monsoon season, and the onset of the El Niño weather pattern could lower precipitation even further over the next two years, according to government officials.”

Complications from El Niño have also prompted water conservation efforts in order to combat effects of the drought. Farmers are now expected to conserve water by restricting planting of rice crops to a single crop, which could cause the supply of sugar to be further reduced. “The dire outlook has prompted Thai authorities to ask farmers to restrict rice planting to a single crop to conserve water, and sugar producers see output falling for the first time in three years,” according to the same report. “A drought is certain to fuel inflation in the Southeast Asian nation as the cost of vegetables, fresh food and meat get pricier on reduced harvests and more expensive animal feed.” Thailand’s drought is projected to shave off 0.2% of GDP, and that there is a 90% probability of the El Niño event continuing during the second half of 2023 according to the World Meteorological Organization.

El Niño is expected to cause similar problems in Vietnam, particularly in the Mekong Delta region. Experts are anticipating the possibility of a “super” El Niño occurring in 2023, which could intensify drought and cause saltwater intrusion, as well as shortages of sand and alluvial sediments. These factors would negatively impact electricity generation in the country’s hydropower plants and its agricultural production in the following year.

El Niño may also intensify drought problems in Cambodia due to the country’s existing below-average annual rainfall. Experts anticipated that El Niño is likely to continue through the summer, fall, and winter of this year. Soth Kim Kolmony, a representative for the National Committee for Disaster Management (NCDM) announced that Cambodia was facing the consequences of climate change caused by the El Nino making the weather very hot and dry. Additionally, according to the forecast of the NCDM, rainfall in the country will be below the annual average due to the effects of El Nino from February to November this year, he said.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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