Australia & New Zealand: Surplus Emerges in north-central Australia

Australia & New Zealand: Surplus Emerges in north-central Australia

26 July 2023

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in March indicates that intense surpluses will lessen in size and severity in southeastern Australia, but will appear in north-central Australia. Intense deficits will emerge in southwestern and eastern coastal regions of the continent. 

Severe to exceptional surplus is expected in the following regions: 

  • Eastern Northern Territory, in areas within the Tablelands and Ranken localities.

  • Western Queensland, spreading southeast into the Shire of Boulia and near the Munga-Thirri National Park. 

  • South-central New South Wales, spreading in pockets in the Riverina region, moving southwest into northwestern Victoria. 

Severe to extreme deficits are anticipated in:

  • Westernmost Western Australia, appearing along the coast of the Indian Ocean, in coastal regions of the Tamala area. Severe anomalies continue further inland, continuing into the Shire of Sandstone. 

  • Southwestern Western Australia, in coastal regions near the Wilyabrup locality. These anomalies reappear further inland, north of Bremer Bay. 

  • Eastern Queensland, in coastal regions near the Mid-Coast Council area, continuing further north into areas near Brisbane.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through September 2023 anticipates existing extreme surpluses in the Northern Territory to expand east, appearing throughout the Cape York Peninsula, and west, near the Drysdale River National Park. Extreme surpluses are also expected to move further north, spreading into regions throughout the Gulf of Carpentaria. Intense deficits are expected to persist in coastal regions of eastern Queensland within the Mid-Coast Council area. 

From October through December 2023, intense surpluses in the Northern Territory, as well as in northern Western Australia, are expected to continue, though will slightly diminish in size. Deficits in eastern coastal regions of Queensland will disappear, though deficits on the western coast of the continent will continue, with exceptional deficits appearing within the Tamala area. In non-contiguous areas, western Tasmania can expect moderate to severe deficits, as well as southern to central New Zealand. 

The forecast for the final months – January 2024 through March 2024 – anticipates most intense anomalies to disappear in both Australia and New Zealand, with normal conditions and mild anomalies across central Australia.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
The forecast from Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology anticipates unseasonably hot and dry weather between August and October of this year. As heat waves are Australia’s deadliest natural hazard, experts have warned of the risks of dangerous temperatures, as well as the potential for bushfires and droughts. Earlier this month, The United Nations World Meteorological Organization said that an El Niño was under way, though Australia’s national weather agency has yet to officially declare the start of an El Niño. 

Communities in Queensland, Australia have invested nearly $10.5 million in an effort to increase resilience against natural disasters. The fund, initiated by the Australian and Queensland governments, will be invested through the 2022-23 Queensland Resilience and Risk Reduction Fund (QRRRF), and will support 24 resilience enhancement projects around the state. Investments are expected to be made in infrastructure, disaster mitigation initiatives, disaster preparedness efforts, and localized risk management staff. Federal Minister for Emergency Management, Senator Murray Watt stated, "Upfront investment in stronger infrastructure pays dividends for communities during and following disasters. It improves overall safety and gives them the confidence that essential infrastructure is less likely to fail during a disaster.”

Agricultural workers are planting hundreds of thousands of Anameka Saltbush, a drought-tolerant native shrub developed over the course of 15 years by Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), in order to combat regional dryness from El Nino. CSIRO agricultural scientist Dr. Hayley Norman stated that, during years of prolonged dryness and feed shortages, Anameka saltbush can provide key nutrients that improve livestock health and productivity. “Anameka Saltbush is a moderate-energy, high crude protein and sulphur feed source that is full of essential minerals and antioxidants,” Dr. Norman said. “We’re now bringing these benefits to new regions across Australia’s southeast to carry farmers through poor seasons and build their resilience to drought.” 

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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