South Asia: Intense deficits persist in W Afghanistan, Bangladesh

South Asia: Intense deficits persist in W Afghanistan, Bangladesh

26 July 2023

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in March 2024 indicates that while most of South Asia can expect normal conditions and mild anomalies, some regions will experience intense, concentrated areas of deficit. 

Exceptional deficits are predicted in:

  • Western Afghanistan, in northwestern areas of the Herat province, as well as western portions of the Chahar Burjak District. 

  • Western Pakistan, in the westernmost areas of the Taftan region.

The following areas are expected to experience severe to extreme deficits: 

  • North India, appearing in the provinces of Punjab, Uttarakhand, and western Uttar Pradesh. These anomalies continue across the border into western Nepal, near the Dogadakedar region. 

  • Easternmost India, in the Manipur, Tripura, and Mizoram provinces, continuing into regions along the eastern border of Bangladesh. 

Severe to extreme surplus is expected to appear in the following areas:

  • West-central India, in western coastal regions of the province of Gujarat, continuing further inland into southern regions of the Rajasthan province. 

  • Central Pakistan, near the city of Khuzdar.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through September 2023 expects extreme deficits to continue in northern and easternmost India, as well as southern Bangladesh. South-central and northern Afghanistan can expect similarly intense deficits to persist, while west-central Pakistan is forecast to observe a small concentrated area of intense transitional conditions in central areas of the Balochistan province. 

From October through December 2023, much of the region is expected to experience a mixture of normal conditions and mild anomalies. However, exceptional deficits are expected to emerge along western India and eastern Pakistan’s border. 

The forecast for the final months – January 2024 through March 2024 – expects intense anomalies throughout the region to disappear, with mild anomalies and normal conditions covering much of India. Some moderate to severe surplus is predicted to linger in central Afghanistan. 

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
The National Environmental Protection Agency (NEPA) requested support from international organizations as the city of Kabul, Afghanistan is covered by drought-induced dust storms. “The dust and foggy weather is due to external issues such as back-to-back droughts,” said Rohullah Ameen, head of the climate change section of the NEPA. The Afghanistan Meteorological Department added that it expects these winds to spread to other provinces in roughly two months. “The winds that include dust will be happening in June, July until September in dry areas. This comes sometimes from the west and sometimes from the northwest or southwest of the country,” said Mohammad Naseem Muradi, head of the Afghanistan Meteorological Department.

As of July 13th, northern India’s record-breaking rainfall from monsoons have killed over 100 people in just over two weeks. At least 88 people died, with 42 fatalities occurring between July 5th and July 13th. An additional 100+ civilians were injured in Himachal Pradesh, where automobiles, bridges, and houses were swept away by floods. Additionally, twelve people have died of incidents caused by excessive rainfall since July 12th in the state of Uttar Pradesh.

Bangladesh, which has experienced continuous, intense heat waves in May and June, is currently reported to be at 67 percent below average rainfall this month. As the country saw 16 percent less rainfall than average in June, the prolonged heat is threatening its agricultural sector. The harvest of aus rice and green chili crops have been negatively impacted, as well as jute – one of the country’s cash crops. Bangladesh is the world’s top producer of jute, of which its fibers are used to make items such as burlap, sacks, mats, rope, and carpet backing.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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