East Asia: Deficits continue in N, S provinces of China

East Asia: Deficits continue in N, S provinces of China

1 August 2023

THE BIG PICTURE
The forecast ending in March 2024 anticipates pockets of intense anomalies in various regions of China, with exceptional deficits occurring in northern and southern provinces, and a notable mixture of surplus and transitional conditions in some central provinces. 

Exceptional deficits are forecast in the following areas: 

  • Eastern China, in northeastern and central regions of the Hebei province, and northeastern regions of Inner Mongolia. Similarly intense deficits are expected in eastern areas of the Ejin Banner. 

  • Western China, in eastern regions of the Yizhou province. 

  • South China, throughout the Yunnan province, and in eastern portions of the Sichuan province. Further west, similarly intense deficits are expected in southwestern Tibet. 

A mixture of extreme to exceptional surplus and transitional conditions are expected in:

  • Central China, throughout southern portions of the Qinghai province and expanding eastern into northwestern Sichuan. 

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through September 2023 indicates that most of the exceptional deficits in southern and northern regions of China will disappear, with isolated events of exceptional deficits lingering near the Alxa League and the Chifeng regions of Inner Mongolia. Extreme to exceptional surpluses are expected to linger in southern areas of the Qinghai province, as well as northwestern Sichuan, with transitional conditions disappearing. Severe to extreme surpluses are expected throughout southern and central Japan.  

From October through December 2023, exceptional deficits are expected to appear in northern regions of the Aksu Prefecture of Xinjiang, with some instances of exceptional surplus occurring along the southern border of Zhaosu County. Some moderate surplus is expected in Kalpin County and its surrounding areas. 

The forecast for the final months – January 2024 through March 2024 – most intense anomalies are expected to dissipate, with some intense surpluses emerging in northwestern China, near western regions of the Xinjiang province.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
On July 10th, Employers across much of northern and southern China were told by officials to limit work outdoors due to the country experiencing widespread extreme temperatures. Temperatures as high as 104 degrees Fahrenheit were reported in cities including Shijiazhuang, southwest of Beijing, the capital. Highs of 95 degrees Fahrenheit  to 100 degrees Fahrenheit were reported in Beijing, Guangzhou in the south, Chongqing in the southwest and Shenyang in the northeast. Meanwhile, eastern and southeastern regions of China were warned to prepare for torrential rain as the country struggled with combinations of heat, floods, and drought.

On July 17th, China’s National Bureau of Statistics announced that even though overall generation of electricity grew 3.8 percent year-on-year, the output of hydropower fell by almost 23 percent in the first half of this year, which was the largest drop among all electricity sources. The Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air recorded the decreased output in the month of June, which was down 34 percent year-on-year. It attributed this to both drought and a necessity for water conservation during peak demand season from July to August. Hydropower is China’s largest source of renewable power, making up 15 percent of the country’s electricity in 2022.

To prevent drought-related energy shortages, China is introducing more flexible power transmission arrangements to its national grid system. The optimization of the grid system comes in response to the decreased output of the country’s hydropower plants, which will assist in sending more power to the country's southwest region, as well as its lesser populated northwest region. After a drought last August, fixed, unidirectional power trading agreements led hydro-dependent southwestern Sichuan province to export power out of the province to fulfill these contracts, even as consumers in the province endured power cuts.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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