Africa: Deficits persist in N, S Africa

2 August 2023

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in March 2024 indicates that intense deficits will continue throughout much of northern and southern Africa, with sparse instances of notable surpluses in the continent’s southeastern countries.

Exceptional deficits are forecast in the following countries:

Northern Mauritania, near the Fderik and Akjoujt departments, and into Mali’s Salam region. Central Algeria’s In Salah and Idles regions will also be affected, as well as west-central Libya, near the city of Sabha.
Central Niger, in the country’s Zinger Region, continuing near Chad’s capital of Fada and into Sudan’s Al Malha region.
Nigeria, near the state of Enugu, and into the Yalinga region of northeastern the Central African Republic.
Southern Angola, along the country’s southern border, expanding into pockets throughout Namibia, Botswana, and Zambia.

The following countries can anticipate severe to extreme deficits:

Zimbabwe, throughout much of the country’s northern and central areas.
Northern Niger, throughout the Bilma region, continuing into the Tibesti Ouest region of Chad, and the Kufra District in southeastern Libya.
Northwest Sudan, in the Halfa district.

Severe to extreme surplus is expected to appear in:

Southern Tanzania, in regions along the country’s southern border.
Northern and southern Mozambique, spreading into regions throughout the Muembe District and surrounding areas. These anomalies continue further south in the Gaza and Moamba provinces.
Eastern Zambia, in the country’s northern province.
Ghana, with severe surplus occurring throughout the country.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through September 2023 indicates that exceptional deficits in north-central Mauritania, Algeria, northern Niger, and southwestern Libya will persist and slightly expand. Northern Mozambique may observe widespread exceptional surplus, as well as southernmost areas of the Democratic Republic of Congo, with intense transitional conditions in northeastern Zambia to persist. Central Botswana can expect similarly intense transitional conditions. Madagascar is expected to observe intense anomalies of varying degrees, with exceptional surplus appearing in southwestern coastal regions, and exceptional deficits in northeastern coastal regions.

From October through December 2023, many intense anomalies are expected to lessen in severity, though extreme to exceptional deficits are predicted to occur in east-central Niger and eastern Sudan. A notable surplus anomaly of moderate to severe intensity is expected in southern Mozambique, with lesser intense anomalies spreading in northern Mozambique, eastern South Africa, Ghana, and southwestern coastal regions of Madagascar.

The forecast for the final months – January 2024 through March 2024 – anticipates most intense anomalies to continue to subside, though some exceptional deficits will emerge in the Horn of Africa, western Guinea, and southwestern Angola.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
As Tunisia experiences prolonged drought, SONEDE, the national water utility of Tunisia, have constructed a desalination plant in the town of Zarat in an effort to purify wastewater for farming. Currently in its fourth year of drought, Mosbeh Helali, CEO of SONEDE, stated that ”The only solution is the desalination of seawater for human consumption." The World Bank predicts that by 2030, much of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region will fall below the absolute water scarcity threshold of 500 cubic meters per person per year. Though the desalination plants are being built to combat drought, they are powered by fossil fuels, which expel carbon into the atmosphere – a major cause of the global heating which intensifies drought.

Temperatures in some areas of the MENA region are currently at the highest levels observed in the world, prompting the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to issue a warning. “Temperatures in North America, Asia, and across North Africa and the Mediterranean will be above 104 degrees Fahrenheit for a prolonged number of days this week as the heatwave intensifies,” the WMO said in a recent statement. John Nairn, WMO’s senior extreme heat adviser, stated that “These are not your normal weather systems of the past. You have to do climate repair to change it.”

In Algeria, five states recorded the highest temperatures in the world in recent days, some of them breaking records. Basma Belbagaoui, an expert on the country’s environment and climate change, reported that some regions of Algeria saw temperatures up to 123.8 degrees Fahrenheit due to low atmospheric pressure, and consequently the emergence of a “heat dome.” Authorities have raised the highest level of alerts due to these record-high temperatures.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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