United States: Intense surpluses persist in W States

23 August 2023

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in April 2024 indicates that western states will continue to experience widespread surpluses, with some intense deficit anomalies appearing in the Pacific Northwest, northern states of the Midwest, and isolated regions in the South.

Extreme to exceptional surplus is expected in the following states:

Wyoming, in west-central regions of the state along the Wind River. These anomalies continue north into southern and central Montana, along the Bighorn River and in areas south of the Missouri River.
Utah, in southwestern regions west of the Colorado River.
Nevada, in most central and western areas of the state, with anomalies crossing its western border into the Sierra Nevada region of eastern California. These anomalies also continue south into northwestern Arizona, in western regions of Kane County.
Oregon, appearing in southern regions west of the Sprague River and south of the John Day River. Similar surplus anomalies continue east into central Idaho, near the Salmon Mountains.

These areas should expect severe to exceptional deficits:

Northeastern Louisiana, near Davis Island, with some anomalies continuing east into southwestern Mississippi.
Western coastal regions of the Pacific Northwest, particularly in western Oregon and Washington.
Eastern Minnesota, in areas along the Mississippi and Namekagon rivers.
Western Michigan, north of the Grand River.
Northeastern Iowa, in regions along northern portions of the Cedar River.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through October 2023 indicates that deficits in the Midwest will persist, but decrease in intensity, particularly in Louisiana, Mississippi, Illinois, eastern Nebraska, Iowa, and northern Wisconsin. Northern Virginia and south-central Pennsylvania should anticipate similarly intense deficits, along with western coastal regions of the Pacific Northwest. In western states, widespread surplus is expected to persist and expand, covering more regions throughout Nevada, central Wyoming, southwestern Utah, Washington, Arizona, and California. Transitional conditions are also expected in west-central California, western Colorado, and scattered throughout Washington.

Outside of the Continental U.S., western regions of the island of Hawai’i should anticipate intense deficits, as well as northern and southeastern Alaska. Northwestern Alaska can anticipate severe to exceptional surplus, specifically in the Seward Peninsula.

From November 2023 through January 2024, most notable deficits are expected to disappear in the Continental U.S., with intense surpluses continuing in Nevada, Wyoming, Utah, Oregon, and Idaho. Surpluses are expected to substantially decrease in size and severity in California, with some surplus anomalies lingering along California’s eastern border and Nevada’s western border. Intense deficits are expected to arise in Hawaii. Mild to moderate surplus will persist and expand throughout the northeastern states., as well as southern South Carolina and Georgia.

The forecast for the final months – February 2024 through April 2024 – intense surpluses are expected to emerge in Florida, Georgia, coastal Carolinas, and central Texas, continuing north in the latter into Oklahoma, Nebraska, and into Colorado. Widespread surpluses in western and southwestern states are expected to somewhat lessen in magnitude but continue in California, Nevada, Colorado, Wyoming, Idaho, and Montana. Deficits in Hawaii and surpluses in Alaska are both expected to spread throughout both regions.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Several factors are anticipated to have caused the devastating fires in Maui. Climate change, dry conditions, and changes in local environments are a few of the causes experts cite as causes. “If you add together a whole bunch of influences, that’s how you get a disaster,” said Jeff Masters, a meteorologist for Yale Climate Connections. “No one thing makes it happen.” Rising summer temperatures in the Southwest had sent hot, dry air towards Hawaii, compounding with hurricanes strengthened by climate change, which potentially could have increased the strength of the winds that spread the flames across Maui. As of August 22nd, 115 deaths have been confirmed, with 850 people still unaccounted for.

A recent report declared that over 50% of Oregon is experiencing moderate to severe drought, as well as record low levels in several streams in coastal and western regions of Oregon. As of August 14th, temperatures across much of the state are expected to surge well above 100 on the following Monday and Tuesday. Drought, both within the state and in surrounding areas, is also expected to worsen air quality, prompting an advisory that extends from Vancouver to Washington. Gov. Tina Kotek has declared drought emergencies for nine Oregon counties so far this year.

Severe flooding caused by Hurricane Hilary in Nevada left intensive damage to roads in Mount Charleston, a town in Clark County, Nevada. Fire chief John Steinbeck stated that, along with rebuilding, support and logistical issues could take weeks or months to resolve. “Until the water recedes enough, you can't even start on that portion of it,” Steinbeck continued. “The water mains were underneath that… there's a lot of work to be done. And estimates are just estimates right now.”

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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