Canada: Intense deficits persist in most provinces

24 August 2023

The 12-month forecast ending in April 2024 anticipates widespread exceptional deficits throughout most provinces. Small areas of the Yukon should anticipate intense surplus, as well as some transitional conditions.

The following provinces should expect extreme to exceptional deficits:

Northeastern British Columbia, in areas east of Snake River, continuing east into Mackenzie County in northwestern Alberta.
Central and northeastern Saskatchewan, in areas east and south of Meadow Lake Provincial Park.
Northeastern Yukon, in areas north of the Lapierre House territory. Exceptional deficits continue throughout most of the Northwest Territories, with the most intense anomalies appearing south of both Great Bear Lake and Great Slave Lake.
Nunavut, throughout the Kitikmeot Region and into the Queen Elizabeth Islands.
In coastal regions of Ontario and Quebec along the Hudson Bay and surrounding the La Grande Riviere Reservoir. These deficits continue east into northeastern coastal regions of Newfoundland.

Moderate to severe surplus is anticipated in:

Western Yukon, in regions northeast of Tombstone Territorial Park.
Nunavut, in coastal regions of Cambridge Bay Inuit Owned Land.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through October 2023 expects widespread deficits to continue in Nunavut, Northwest Territories, and the Queen Elizabeth Islands. Northeastern British Columbia and northwestern Alberta should anticipate deficits to also continue. Saskatchewan will experience widespread deficits of varying intensity, with the most intense deficits occurring in the province’s central regions. In Manitoba, territories northwest of Lake Winnipeg will also continue. Coastal regions along the Hudson Bay in both Ontario and Quebec are expected to endure continued deficits, which continue east into northern Quebec and northern Newfoundland.

From November 2023 through January 2024, deficits in Nunavut, northern Alberta, Northwestern Territories, and Saskatchewan are expected to lessen in magnitude and intensity, with many areas expected to experience near normal conditions, though exceptional deficits are still expected in areas south of Great Bear Lake and east of Umingmaktok. Deficits will also continue but shrink in central Saskatchewan, as well as in Manitoba, west of Lake Winnipeg. Regions in Quebec along the coast of the Hudson Bay, but persist in northeastern Ontario.

The forecast for the final months – February 2024 through April 2024 – expects deficits to continue in northern Nunavut and the Northwest Territories, as well as northern coastal regions of Yukon. Small areas within northeastern British Columbia and northwestern Alberta can expect similar deficits. West-central regions of Saskatchewan, west of Dore Lake, may experience severe to extreme deficits. Further south, much of British Columbia, central Quebec, and eastern Newfoundland can anticipate moderate surplus.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Nearly 30,000 households in British Columbia have been ordered to evacuate following the emergence of roughly 400 wildfires across the province, with another 36,000 homes still under evacuation alert. Bowinn Ma, province's emergency management minister, emphasized the importance of adherence to the evacuation orders, stating "They are a matter of life and death not only for the people in those properties, but also for the first responders who will often go back to try to implore people to leave." Further north in the Northwest Territories, similar evacuation orders were issued, as well as a deadline to evacuate the city. This is currently Canada’s worst wildfire season on record, with at least 1,000 fires burning across the country. Scientists have cited climate change as a partial cause due to increased risk of hot, dry weather.

More than a dozen agricultural disasters have been declared as Alberta's southern regions have experienced intense dry conditions for months. According to the province's most recent moisture situation report, released Aug. 9, most of the province’s southern half of the southern region, among other areas, are in desperate need of rain. Counties which announced agricultural disasters included County of Stettler, County of Paintearth, Vulcan County, Clear Hills County, Foothills County, Cypress County, Wheatland County, and Municipal District of Acadia, among many others. In Vulcan County, Kelly Malmberg, the county’s director of agriculture, stated that the harvest overall is looking "dismal." "There's some real issues here [with] respect to consecutive years of drought,” said Malmberg, “ it's starting to mentally wear on people, and financially wear on them." Agricultural disasters are declared in an effort to signal to provincial and federal governments that the conditions farmers observe have grown dire, and do not have any actual impact in being declared aside from serving as an alert that additional support is needed.

Stage 2 water restrictions were issued for residents of Metro Vancouver in an effort to conserve drinking water as the province experiences prolonged hot and dry temperatures, as well as significant drought conditions. Under Stage 2, residents are prohibited from watering their lawns, which include schools, city parks, and lawns, as well as filling water features. Those who violate the restrictions could face fines of up to $500. The region was recently estimated to use roughly 1 billion liters a day, but demand spikes by up to 50 percent in the summer months. Additionally, water usage is also about 20 per cent higher this summer than last.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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