Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Deficits continue throughout S Mexico, Central America

Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: dEFICITS continue THROUGHOUT S MEXICO, CENTRAL AMERICA

24 August 2023

THE BIG PICTURE

The 12-month forecast ending in April 2024 anticipates deficits of varying intensity to be widespread throughout most of Mexico and Central America.

The following countries should expect extreme to exceptional deficits:

  • Mexico, in southern regions of the state of Chihuahua, as well as northern regions of the state of Durango. 

  • Central Guatemala, in areas surrounding Izabal Lake, spreading into southern Belize.

  • Western Honduras, widespread throughout areas west of Lake Yojoa. 

  • Costa Rica, in the Chontales and Rio San Juan departments. 

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through October 2023 anticipates deficits in southern regions of Chihuahua to persist, as well as in regions near Mexico City. Similar deficits are forecast in southern coastal regions of Baja California Sur, near the town of Todos Santos. Areas of west-central Honduras, near San Pedro Sula, can anticipate severe to extreme deficits.

From November 2023 through January 2024, exceptional deficits are expected to continue in southern regions of Chihuahua, but dissipate into mostly normal conditions throughout the rest of Mexico. Much of Central America will also experience a mixture of normal conditions and mild deficit anomalies. 

The forecast for the final months – February 2024 through April 2024 – anticipates extreme to exceptional deficits to reemerge in southern Mexico, near coastal regions of the state of Oaxaca, as well as throughout Guatemala, western Honduras, and regions of Costa Rica, north of Lake Cocibolca.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
As an extreme drought grips Mexico, threatening crops, water supplies, and increasing food prices, the Mexican government seeks to use controversial cloud seeding technology to offset the damage. Its most recent attempts to combat drought have targeted 62 northern and northeastern municipalities, with the intent of “combating the effects of drought and contributing to the recharge of aquifers,” according to a statement from the Ministry of Agriculture. The government hopes the method will stimulate rainfall, helping farmers cope with the intense widespread drought. A heatwave in the country has killed at least 249 people over the past four months, and is only set to worsen as scientists anticipate that heat waves and drought will become more frequent due to climate change.

The Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum warned that thаt tropical regions of the Pacific and Atlantic Oceanаrе expected tо endure above average temperatures іn thе uрсоmіng three months. This record warmth in tropical Аtlаntіc іѕlаndѕ has mіtіgаted соnсеrnѕ of drought, but elevated thе rіѕk оf flооding and resulting hazards of heavy rainfall. The upcoming temperature increase is expected to have a paradoxical effect on Caribbean rainfall and hurricane activity, as heightened temperatures in both areas are expected to contribute to more precipitation. 

In El Salvador, a recent report published by United Nations agencies warns that the impact of El Niño will cause price increases on agricultural production, as well as exacerbate concerns of food insecurity, as the reduction in the harvests of basic grains in 2023 has the potential to reduce food reserves. In a report published in the El Mundo newspaper, more than 100 cooperative members are impacted by lack of sufficient rainfall. Cooperative communities, such as ones in Chalchuapa, are becoming discouraged, as the current drought recently ruined 40 percent of some communities’ corn production.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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