Africa: Intense water deficits continue in N Africa

26 September 2023

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in May 2024 anticipates widespread exceptional deficits across much of northern Africa, with some similarly intense deficits appearing in southern regions of the continent. Areas of surplus are expected in southeastern countries.

Extreme to exceptional deficits are anticipated in several areas, including:

Mauritania, widespread throughout most of the country, continuing into northern to central Mali, throughout most of the Salam region.
Niger, throughout much of the Agadez, Zinder, Diffa, and Tchin-Tabaraden regions. Algeria can anticipate similarly widespread exceptional deficits across most of the country, with some transitional conditions appearing in pockets near the city of Tamanrasset.
Libya, throughout most of its central and southern regions. Transitional conditions are also expected in the Jufra District. These deficits continue throughout northern and central Chad, western to eastern Sudan, and eastern regions of Egypt.
Democratic Republic of Congo, primarily in the Kasongo and Lubao regions. Nearby, similar deficits appear in an arc in Gabon, appearing near Libreville and moving southeast into Tchibanga.
Botswana, widespread throughout most of the country, with some transitional conditions appearing in western regions of the Jwaneng District. These deficits continue into Zimbabwe, primarily appearing in western areas of the Bulilimamangwe District and throughout the Midlands Province.

Moderate to severe surpluses are expected in the following regions:

Northern and southern Mozambique, across the Niassa Reserve and in areas north of the Banhine National Park.
Tanzania, across most areas of the country.
Ghana, in areas near Lake Volta, moving further into Burkina Faso, across its Boucle du Mouhoun and Centre-Est Regions.
South Africa, in southwestern coastal regions near Cape Town.
Southern coastal regions of Nigeria.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through November 2023 anticipates that the exceptional deficits in northern Africa will lessen in magnitude, though will remain in eastern Mauritania, northern Mali, and central Algeria. Exceptional deficits will also continue to be widespread across much of Libya and southeastern Chad. Severe to extreme deficits are expected to linger in Uganda and South Sudan, as well as areas along the western border of Ethiopia, of which can expect some areas of continued exceptional deficit. Intense surplus is expected to linger in eastern Zambia, as well as across Mozambique and southwestern Zimbabwe.

From December through February 2024, most exceptional deficits in northern Africa are expected to disappear, though a small band of exceptional deficits is expected to appear in pockets across western Mali, northern Niger, southern Chad, and southern Sudan. Most regions in the Horn of Africa are also expected to observe exceptional deficits. Moderate to severe surplus is also expected in central to southern Algeria.

The forecast for the final months – March through May 2024 – most areas will observe near normal conditions, though moderate to severe surplus will persist in Tanzania, south of Lake Victoria. Similar surpluses will persist in Burkina Faso. Deficits ranging from extreme to exceptional will reemerge in northeastern Niger and continue east into southeastern Libya and southern Egypt. Isolated pockets of extreme to exceptional deficits are also expected to persist on the southeastern border of Chad.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
A joint UN-AU report on September 4th reported that Africa is heating up faster than the rest of Earth and is enduring disproportionately more climate disasters, such as drought. The continent experienced 80 extreme climate hazards last year, including the Horn of Africa’s worst drought in 40 years, as well as widespread wildfires in Algeria. Over 5,000 deaths and $8.5 billion in economic damage were caused by these climate hazards, though are likely to be higher due to reporting gaps. The report also stated that “climate change and the diminishing natural resource base could fuel conflicts for scarce productive land, water, and pastures, where farmer-herder violence has increased over the past 10 years due to growing land pressure.” Violence over resources has already manifested in parts of the Sahel.

France recently sent military forces to distribute water to the department of Mayotte, a French archipelago off the coast of Mozambique. The territory is facing an unprecedented water crisis as the region experiences the most intense drought in decades. Authorities have ordered for water rationing two out of three days, in areas also facing migration related tensions from the nearby country of Comoros, which has prompted protests. Nearly 30% of the population does not have access to running water at home, and have also noticed a surge in cases of diarrhea and typhoid. Some of the region’s reservoirs could potentially run out by the end of September, as they produce 20,000 cubic meters of water daily – falling short of the estimated need of 42,000 cubic meters.

A report released September 19th stated that Libya’s recent devastating storm was exacerbated by climate change, which increased its probability of occurring by 50%, as well as its intensity by 50%. Heavy rainfall caused massive flooding in Libya which flooded two dams, deluging the city of Derna and destroying neighborhoods, bridges, and cars. The death toll has varied, with estimates ranging from about 4,000 to 11,000 deaths. The report also acknowledged the impact of the storm was worsened by deforestation and urbanization in areas hit by the storm prior to Libya, which changed the landscape and exposed more people to flooding.

Researchers at Tufts University and the Woodwell Climate Research Center recently reported that Addis Ababa, Ethiopia’s capital city, is likely to experience more heatwaves, droughts, and destructive flooding over the next 67 years. Addis Ababa is one of the fastest growing cities in Africa; its current population of nearly 5.4 million is expected to reach 9 million by 2035. Most people in the city will live in informal settlements, which have poor or nonexistent infrastructure, making them increasingly vulnerable to climate disasters.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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