United States: Deficits intensify in southern, northern states

27 September 2023

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in May 2024 anticipates surpluses in western states will linger but lessen in intensity, with intense deficits occurring in some southern and northern states.

Severe to extreme deficits are anticipated in several areas, including:

Louisiana, throughout most of the state, spreading into southwestern Mississippi.
Northeastern Iowa, continuing in pockets across central to northern Minnesota and throughout Wisconsin. Regions of western Michigan along the coast of Lake Michigan can anticipate similarly intense deficits.
Coastal regions of the Pacific Northwest, spreading along western Oregon and Washington.
East-central Kansas, in regions west of the Marais Des Cygnes River, spreading further north into southeastern Nebraska, in areas north of the Republican River.

Extreme to exceptional surpluses are expected to occur in the following areas:

Central Wyoming, appearing in most regions along the Bighorn River.
Northern Vermont, throughout most northern regions. Small areas of extreme surpluses continue into central New Hampshire and central Maine.
Eastern California, across the Sierra Nevada.
Nevada, with extreme surpluses covering much of the state. These surpluses continue into southwestern Utah and into northwestern Arizona.
Alaska, widespread throughout the state, with the heaviest concentrations appearing in the Seward Peninsula, the Northwest Arctic Borough, and the Bristol Bay Borough.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through November 2023 anticipates surplus in western states to further decrease in magnitude and intensity, though much of Nevada will continue to observe extreme surpluses, as well as areas in southern California and the Sierra Nevada. Areas along the Bighorn River in central Wyoming can expect extreme to exceptional surpluses to continue, along with areas along Lake Roosevelt National Recreation Area in Washington. Outside of the Continental U.S., exceptional surplus is expected to continue in Seward Peninsula of Alaska.

Exceptional deficits are expected to persist in western coastal regions of the Pacific Northwest, as well as concentrations in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and northeastern Iowa. Deficits in Louisiana are expected to downgrade, with some moderate to severe deficits appearing in southeastern regions of the state. Similar conditions are expected across Florida.

From December through February 2024, most anomalies are expected to continue downgrading across the Continental U.S., as deficits in Minnesota and Wisconsin are expected to continue decreasing in extent. Extreme to exceptional deficits in Iowa are expected to become mild to moderate deficits. Further west, surplus in Nevada is expected to continue but lessen in magnitude and severity, though surpluses in central Wyoming are expected to continue at the same intensity. Northern New Mexico and portions of central Colorado are expected to observe severe to extreme deficits.

The forecast for the final months – March through May 2024 – anticipates exceptional deficits in Minnesota to increase in magnitude, while Wisconsin can expect severe to extreme deficits across the state, spreading into some northern regions of Illinois. Severe to extreme deficits are expected to reemerge in western coastal regions of Michigan. While most extreme to exceptional surpluses are expected to disappear, severe surpluses are expected throughout Florida, central Texas, eastern Colorado, western Wyoming, central Nevada, and southern California. Surpluses in Alaska are expected to similarly dissipate, with small pockets of moderate surplus appearing in central regions.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS

On September 11th, NOAA reported that the country has experienced 23 separate billion dollar weather disasters related to climate change this year, which have affected nearly every region in the country. These include Hurricane Idalia in Florida, the wildfires of Hawaii, and conditions in central states that spawned nearly 145 tornadoes over two days. Together, they caused more than 250 deaths and cost more than $57.6bn in damages. “With approximately four months still left in the year, 2023 has already surpassed the previous record of 22 events seen in all of 2020,” NOAA said in its report.

Researchers at Ohio State University recently published findings that droughts in Ohio from 2009 to 2019 were more severe than the standard measurements had initially suggested. The study analyzed how corn yields and streams were affected by certain drought indicators, like changes in soil moisture, crops, and nearby livestock losses. The results suggest that Ohio farmers could potentially be provided with earlier, more accurate notice when drought conditions are approaching, said Steven Quiring, co-author of the study and a professor of geography at Ohio State. “We want to better understand what steps should be taken so that Ohio can better prepare for and also monitor the onset of drought conditions because a lot of the best ways to respond to drought is taking action early,” said Quiring.

In Alaska, a rare double glacial dam released into the Kenai River, causing high water levels and flood risks on the Kenai Peninsula. Two glaciers, the Snow and Skilak, released large amounts of water which flowed downstream into the Kenai. The glacier dams typically release every two or three years, but never simultaneously. “It’s pretty rare that those go in the same year, even more rare that they go within a few days of each other,” he said. These glacial releases follow another unexpected deluge, as the Snow Glacier Lake also recently released in 2022. Van Peursem said there’s no good explanation for why that’s occurring. He said the Snow Glacier lake began releasing water last Wednesday into the Snow River and down to Kenai Lake.

All four CropWatch producers in Iowa and Illinois have reduced yield expectations for soybean crops as a result of frequent unfavorable dry weather conditions. The region’s latest dry spell began in mid-August and has pushed the U.S. Corn Belt crops toward maturity too quickly, preventing maximum yields. As of September 12, most of the Corn Belt is expected to experience continued dry conditions for the next few weeks, with temperatures forecast to increase.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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