Europe: Deficits intensify in Eastern Europe

27 September 2023

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in May 2024 anticipates that while many regions of European countries will observe near-normal conditions, much of eastern European countries can expect deficits ranging from moderate to extreme intensity. Small areas of surplus are also expected to occur in southern and northern Europe.

Severe to extreme deficits are anticipated in several areas, including:

Southern Germany, appearing along the Inn River. These deficits continue into Switzerland, in the canton of Zurich, and eastern France in the Jura department.
Northern Poland, in areas within the Warmian-Masurian Voivodeship province.
Northern Sweden, in western regions of the Troms og Finnmark.
Northern Belarus, across the Vitebsk region, which moves further south into west-central Ukraine, in areas near the Khmelnytskyi Oblast.
The Balkans, with severe deficits appearing in northeastern Romania, and exceptional deficits appearing in southern Bulgaria near Plovdiv. Nearby in eastern Greece, small regions north of Orestias will experience similar deficits.

Surpluses of varying intensity are expected in the following countries:

Norway, with exceptional surpluses widespread in regions near the Valdres Nature and Culture Park.
Southern Austria, with exceptional surpluses appearing throughout the Klagenfurt-Land District, which continue further south into northern Slovenia near the town of Tržič.
Finland, with moderate to severe surpluses throughout most of the country’s central region.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through November 2023 anticipates exceptional deficits to linger in northern Norway, as well as extreme surplus in southern Norway. Severe to extreme deficits will continue in northern Poland, in areas within the Warmian-Masurian Voivodeship province. Belarus is expected to experience severe deficits, though they are expected to decrease in magnitude. Extreme to exceptional surplus is expected to persist in eastern coastal regions of Italy, as well as across Sicily. Nearby, Serbia and Kosovo are expected to experience surpluses of similar intensity.

From December through February 2024, widespread moderate to severe surpluses are expected throughout Norway, central Sweden, and central Finland. Western regions of Estonia and Latvia can expect surpluses of similar intensity. Further south, areas in northeastern Poland, north of Warsaw, can expect moderate to severe deficits. Nearby, eastern regions of the Czech Republic can expect moderate surplus.

The forecast for the final months – March through May 2024 – anticipates that nearly all European countries will observe near-normal conditions, with some instances of mild surplus in France, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Germany, and mild deficits in Belarus and western Ukraine.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
As high temperatures and destructive droughts continue across France, major tension has arisen over the use of artificial reservoirs for irrigation. Some farmers use these reservoirs to combat water shortages, but others argue that it only accelerates the depletion of groundwater for comparatively few producers. “Water is a common good. No one can claim it as their own,” said Julien Le Guet, a spokesperson for Bassines Non Merci (Basins No Thanks), an activist group. This month, Le Guet and several others went on trial over unauthorized protests against the construction of a reservoir in western France.

In early September, major flooding occurred across Spain in the Madrid, Toledo, and Cádiz regions, prompting stay at home advisories and suspending a football match between Atletico Madrid and Sevilla. In Madrid, firefighters were deployed 190 times in response to flooded roads. The flooding was a result of intense flooding from a storm, which hit coastal regions near Cádiz, Tarragona, and Castelló. In the city of Alcanar in Tarragona, 215 liters per square meter of rain fell over the course of 24 hours.

Norway’s wealth fund urged companies to plan transitioning following a $1.4 trillion campaign aiming to reduce emissions to net zero by 2050. Citing climate change as a financial risk, representatives prompted company boards to adopt climate risks into strategies and develop transition plans to deliver on emissions reduction targets. Other suggestions made include assessment of climate change’s impact on operations, value chains, and product demand. “With the effects of climate change becoming more evident, we really saw the need to sharpen our expectations,” Chief Governance and Compliance Officer Carine Smith Ihenacho said Friday.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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