South Asia: Isolated deficits in east-central India

South Asia: Isolated deficits in east-central India

28 September 2023

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in May 2024 anticipates intense deficits and surpluses in isolated areas of India, with most other countries experiencing near normal conditions. 

Extreme to exceptional deficits are anticipated in several areas, including: 

  • East-central India, throughout the Chota Nagpur Plateau and the Ganges Plain.  

  • Southwestern India, in the state of Karnataka near the Western Ghats mountain range. 

  • Bangladesh, throughout the Khulna Division.

  • Western Pakistan, in northwestern regions of Balochistan. 

  • Southern Afghanistan, in the Nimroz and Helmand provinces. 

Moderate to severe surpluses are expected in the following regions:

  • North India, in regions north of the Ravi River. 

  • Western India, near the Aravalli Range and in western coastal regions of the state of Gujarat. 

  • Southeastern India, along the Coromandel Coast.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through November 2023 exceptional deficits in southern Afghanistan and western Pakistan are expected to increase in magnitude, while most anomalies in India are expected to disappear, becoming abnormal conditions throughout most of the country. Some severe to extreme deficits are expected in northeastern regions of Uttarakhand and along the southeastern border of Nepal.

From December through February 2024, exceptional deficits are likely to appear in west India, particularly in the Kathiawar Peninsula and in eastern Gujarat. Severe to extreme surplus is anticipated in western areas of the Jammu and Kashmir region, as well as further south in the Coromandel Coast. 

The forecast for the final months – March through May 2024 – expects deficits in the Kathiawar Peninsula and eastern Gujarat to disappear, with some intense deficits appearing along India’s western coast. Surplus along the Coromandel Coast is expected to continue.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
India’s sugar output could potentially fall by 3.3 percent due to low rainfall affecting sugarcane crop yields in Maharashtra and Karnataka. Together, Maharashtra and Karnataka account for more than half of total Indian sugar output. Sugar prices in India have also reportedly risen over 3 percent in two weeks, reaching their highest level in six years. As prices continue to rise, concern has also been raised for the upcoming season. According to the report, production shortfalls could add to food inflation, which would discourage the central government from allowing sugar exports, consequentially supporting global prices which are at a decade-high. 

On September 14th, the government of Karnataka declared that 195 taluks, or Indian hereditary estates, have been affected by drought due to weak monsoons. 161 taluks were described as suffering from severe drought, while 34 suffer from moderate drought. As a result, a government ordered memorandum will be submitted to the central government to provide drought relief to a total of 236 taluks in 31 districts. “As per National Disaster Response Force ([NDRF] and State Disaster Response Fund [SDRF] guidelines, 195 taluks in the state have been declared as drought-hit. A memorandum will be submitted to the central government to provide drought relief to these 195 taluks,” chief minister Siddaramaiah said on Thursday. 

As Bangladesh continues to face droughts and floods, health professionals in the country have raised concern about the climate’s effect on citizens’ mental health. A recent study published in the Lancet Planetary Health journal reported that researchers observed an increase in likelihood of people suffering from depression and anxiety when exposed to higher temperatures, higher humidity, and worsening floods. Extreme weather and climate disasters are known to cause or worsen anxiety and depression – conditions that are poorly understood in Bangladesh and that there are far too few trained psychologists, as nearly a fifth of adults in Bangladesh are reported to suffer from mental health issues. Local farmer Ripon Mondal stated that his family “would have to cross at least two rivers and travel a long distance” to find a psychologist. 

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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