Canada: Deficits continue in most provinces

28 September 2023
The 12-month forecast ending in May 2024 anticipates widespread deficits to persist throughout most provinces, with isolated pockets of surplus appearing in areas of Yukon and Nunavut.

Extreme to exceptional deficits are anticipated in several areas, including:

Central to northeastern British Columbia, in regions south of the Peace River and in the Northern Rockies region.
Northern and southern Alberta, throughout the Caribou Mountains, and in areas south of Bistcho Lake and east of the South Saskatchewan River.
Saskatchewan, appearing in regions southwest of Reindeer Lake, southeast of Lake Athabasca, and north of Lake Diefenbaker. These deficits continue east into western Manitoba, as well as along the Churchill and Nelson rivers.
Northeastern coastal regions of Ontario along the Hudson Bay, along the coast into northwestern Quebec. Northeastern Quebec can expect similar deficits which continue east into northern Newfoundland.
Northwest Territories, throughout the region, particularly in areas surrounding Great Slave Lake and southeast of Great Bear Lake. These deficits continue into northeastern Yukon, in areas north of Lapierre House, and Nunavut, widespread throughout southern portions of the Kitikmeot Region and in Prince Patrick Island, Mackenzie King Island, and the Inuvik Region.

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected in the following regions:

Western Yukon, in areas west of Tombstone Territorial Park.
Nunavut, specifically in the Clyde River Inuit Owned Land.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through November 2023 anticipates deficits to continue in central and northeastern British Columbia, specifically in the Northern Rockies region. These deficits continue east into northwestern Alberta, into areas in Mackenzie County and the Wood Buffalo National Park of Canada. Severe to exceptional deficits will continue throughout Saskatchewan and northwest of Lake Winnipeg in central Manitoba. Northeastern coastal regions of Ontario bordering the Hudson Bay can expect similar deficits to persist, which continue along the coast into northwestern Quebec. Further north, deficits are expected to linger in areas south of Great Bear Lake in Northwest Territories, as well as areas southeast of Great Slave Lake. Exceptional deficits are expected to persist in Nunavut’s Inuvik and Qikiqtaaluk regions, as are exceptional surpluses in the Clyde River Inuit Owned Land.

From December through February 2024, exceptional deficits are expected to linger in northeastern British Columbia and northern Alberta. Extreme to exceptional deficits are also expected to linger throughout Saskatchewan. Northeastern regions in Ontario are expected to observe continued deficits along the coast of the Hudson Bay, though northwestern coastal regions of Quebec are expected to see a decrease in magnitude of persisting deficits. Further north, deficits in Northwest Territories are expected to persist in areas southeast of Great Slave Lake and south of Great Bear Lake. In Nunavut, exceptional deficits are forecast to continue in the Inuvik Region and in areas of the Qikiqtaaluk Region. Exceptional surplus will linger in the Clyde River Inuit Owned Land.

The forecast for the final months – March through May 2024 – anticipates deficits to further decrease in magnitude, with exceptional deficits still persisting in Nunavut’s Inuvik Region, northeastern British Columbia, northern Alberta, and northeastern coastal regions of Ontario. Central to northern Saskatchewan can expect severe to extreme deficits to continue. Moderate to severe surplus is expected to emerge in central to eastern Quebec. Further north, exceptional surplus in the Clyde River Inuit Owned Land is expected to persist.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Nearly 30,000 households in British Columbia have been ordered to evacuate following the emergence of roughly 400 wildfires across the province, with another 36,000 homes still under evacuation alert. Bowinn Ma, province's emergency management minister, emphasized the importance of adherence to the evacuation orders, stating "They are a matter of life and death not only for the people in those properties, but also for the first responders who will often go back to try to implore people to leave." Further north in the Northwest Territories, similar evacuation orders were issued, as well as a deadline to evacuate the city. This is currently Canada’s worst wildfire season on record, with at least 1,000 fires burning across the country. Scientists have cited climate change as a partial cause due to increased risk of hot, dry weather.

More than a dozen agricultural disasters have been declared as Alberta's southern regions have experienced intense dry conditions for months. According to the province's most recent moisture situation report, released Aug. 9, most of the province’s southern half of the southern region, among other areas, are in desperate need of rain. Counties which announced agricultural disasters included County of Stettler, County of Paintearth, Vulcan County, Clear Hills County, Foothills County, Cypress County, Wheatland County, and Municipal District of Acadia, among many others. In Vulcan County, Kelly Malmberg, the county’s director of agriculture, stated that the harvest overall is looking "dismal." "There's some real issues here [with] respect to consecutive years of drought,” said Malmberg, “ it's starting to mentally wear on people, and financially wear on them." Agricultural disasters are declared in an effort to signal to provincial and federal governments that the conditions farmers observe have grown dire, and do not have any actual impact in being declared aside from serving as an alert that additional support is needed.

Stage 2 water restrictions were issued for residents of Metro Vancouver in an effort to conserve drinking water as the province experiences prolonged hot and dry temperatures, as well as significant drought conditions. Under Stage 2, residents are prohibited from watering their lawns, which include schools, city parks, and lawns, as well as filling water features. Those who violate the restrictions could face fines of up to $500. The region was recently estimated to use roughly 1 billion liters a day, but demand spikes by up to 50 percent in the summer months. Additionally, water usage is also about 20 per cent higher this summer than last.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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