Middle East: Intense deficits continue throughout central, southern regions

Middle East: Intense deficits continue throughout central, southern regions

03 October 2023

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in May 2024 anticipates widespread deficits of varying intensity to occur across most of the region. Areas of surplus are expected to persist in Turkey. 

Extreme to exceptional deficits are anticipated in several areas, including: 

  • Yemen, widespread throughout the country. 

  • Oman, primarily across the Al Wusta, Ad Dakhiliyah, and Ad Dhahirah Governorates.

  • Saudi Arabia, widespread throughout central and southern regions. The most intense concentrations appear across the Tuwayq Mountains, west of Riyadh, and across the Rub' al Khali desert. 

  • Eastern Iran, with deficits appearing across the Kerman, northern Sistan and Baluchestan, and South Khorasan provinces. 

Moderate to severe deficits are forecast in: 

  • Western United Arab Emirates, in most of the western regions of the Emirate of Abu Dhabi.

  • Southeastern Saudi Arabia, throughout the Al Udeid region. 

Surpluses of varying intensity are expected in the following countries:

  • Northern regions of Turkey near the city of Çorum. Similarly intense surplus is expected in southwestern regions of the country, near the city of Denizli.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail. 

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through November 2023 predicts that exceptional deficits will continue to be widespread in Saudi Arabia, affecting most central regions of the country near Riyadh, as well as southern portions of Al Ahsa. These deficits continue north into regions near the city of Hafar Al Batin, much of Kuwait, and southern regions of Iraq’s Al-Salman District. Deficits in eastern Iran are expected to continue across the Kerman, northern Sistan and Baluchestan, and South Khorasan provinces. Surpluses in western Turkey are expected to persist but slightly downgrade in magnitude. 

From December through February 2024 anticipates most regions to experience near-normal conditions, with the exception of exceptional deficits continuing throughout much of Yemen and Oman. Further north, central Iraq, western Iran, and southeastern Turkey can expect mild to moderate surplus. 

The forecast for the final months – March through May 2024 –  expects deficits in Yemen and Oman to shrink dramatically, only lingering in areas near the region of Zamakh and the cities of Al Mukalla and Ash Shuwaymiyah.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Negative repercussions are expected to occur In Saudi Arabia due to the region’s heavy dependency on desalination practices.  As the region often suffers from insufficient rainfall, Saudi Arabia relies heavily on desalination plants for water, a controversial process which produces potable water drawn from the Gulf and Red Sea at the expense of damage to surrounding environments. However, as the country’s population grows due to Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s plan to grow into a business and tourism hub, previous sustainability goals to achieve net-zero emissions by 2060 could be put at risk. "Typically, the population grows, and then the quality of life of the population grows," said CEO of ACWA Power Marco Arcelli. Prince Mohammed bin Salman anticipates the population to grow from 32.2 million to 100 million people by 2040.

In northwestern Turkey, water is evaporating in Lake Karam ad-Doi due to drought and extreme heat. The lake is a source of irrigation for 6,000 dunams of agricultural land and provides water for several crops, such as corn, clover, and sunflowers. The region's irrigation director, Erdogan Uzun, confirmed that the area is currently witnessing the highest rates of drought in recent years. The drought began in winter and became increasingly severe into the summer months. Uzun stated, “As I remember, we witnessed a drought in 2014, and yet we did not need to use the machine that distributes water at the bottom of the lake, but we need that now.” 

On September 25th, Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al Sudani said that new measures set to combat water scarcity in the country will soon be put into effect. Iraq is classified by the UN as the fifth most vulnerable country in the world to climate change, and its water crisis has been worsening for decades. During a public televised discussion, a local farmer asked the Prime Minister for improved management of water resources. “We’ve come here to Baghdad because of the hardships we’ve seen in our areas due to lack of water,” said the farmer. “There is no water to drink or to use for washing. We dig wells but they are salty and our children are getting sick. At least, we need water to drink.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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