Central Asia & Russia: Deficits persist in W, E Russia

Central Asia & Russia: Deficits persist in W, E Russia

04 October 2023

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in May 2024 anticipates intense deficits to appear in western and eastern Russia, with some surplus and transitional conditions appearing in central regions of the country. Central Asia is expected to observe mostly normal conditions, with some deficits in northern Kazakhstan. 

Extreme to exceptional deficits are anticipated in several areas, including: 

  • Northern Russia, widespread throughout the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, the region of Komi, and Sverdlovsk. These deficits continue west along the Ob River. 

  • Southern to central Russia, in regions north of the Zeya Reservoir, continuing into the Zeysky District, across southern regions of the Sakha Republic, and into the Okhotsk District. 

  • Northeastern Russia, in northern regions of the Sakha Republic, in areas south of the Adycha River and surrounding the Selenyakh River. 

  • Northern Kazakhstan, in areas north of the Akmola Region. 

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected in the following regions:

  • Southern Russia, in the Kazachinsko-Lensky Municipal District and southern regions of the Kirensky District.

  • East-central Russia, in areas southeast of the Vilyuy River. 

  • Northern Russia, in areas surrounding the Kotuy River. 

Transitional conditions are expected in: 

  • Central Russia, throughout the Mirninsky District and west of the Markha River. 

  • Northwestern Russia, in northern coastal regions of the Tavozsky District and nearby coastal regions of the Taymyrsky Dolgano-Nenetsky District.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through November 2023, regions of the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug near the Novy Port Settlement and nearby coastal regions of the Taymyrsky Dolgano-Nenetsky District are expected to endure continued exceptional deficits. Deficits in the regions of Komi and Sverdlovsk are expected to decrease significantly in magnitude. Areas in east-central Russia northeast of Lake Baikal are expected to observe continued severe to exceptional surplus. Some regions of the Eastern Kazakhstan Region can expect moderate to severe surplus, which continues north into Russia’s Kosh-Agachsky District, as well as southwest into Uzbekistan. 

From December through February 2024, exceptional surpluses are expected to persist in the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, with similarly intense transitional conditions appearing along the western coast of the Nadymsky District. Moderate to extreme deficits in the regions of Komi and Sverdlovsk are expected to persist. In eastern Russia, regions northeast of Lake Baikal are expected to observe persisting severe to extreme surpluses. Nearby regions of the Sakha Republic are also expected to experience persisting extreme to exceptional deficits.  Further south, surpluses in Kazakhstan are expected to intensify, becoming extreme to exceptional and covering the Turkestan region. These surpluses continue further south into eastern Turkmenistan, eastern Uzbekistan, and western Tajikistan. 

The forecast for the final months – March through May 2024 – anticipates deficits in Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug to continue decreasing in magnitude, with transitional conditions disappearing. Areas in southwestern Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug can anticipate severe to extreme deficits to persist. Surplus is expected to continue in southern areas of Russia’s Kosh-Agachsky District, while deficits in the Sakha Republic are likely to lessen in magnitude. Surplus in Kazakhstan is expected to become moderate to severe, but cover most north-central areas of the country, as well as southern regions, continuing into Tajikistan and Kygyrstan.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Kyrgyzstan has experienced significant drought this year, resulting in a 30% reduction in forage yields. In an effort to preserve the country’s agricultural sector, the Ministry of Agriculture implemented restrictions on exports on all types of feed previously in August. In addition, all feed imported into Kyrgyzstan was made exempt from taxes. A group appointed by the Ministry of Agriculture made several more decisions to combat the agricultural impact of drought, including a temporary ban on agricultural exports, maximum utilization of pastures, and replacing non-productive animals with breeding stock. With mindful usage of the implemented resources, the upcoming winter’s livestock production period is expected to be successful.

Kazakhstan, Central Asia's largest grain producer, recently banned wheat imports from other countries. The ban, which was introduced by the Kazakhstan Ministry of Agriculture, is expected to last six months, starting on October 11th.  It will include wheat imports by road from other countries, as well as those in the Eurasian Economic Union. Yadikar Ibragimov, Chairman of the Board of the National Association of Oilseed Processors (NAOP) of Kazakhstan, stated that the ban aims to support local farmers affected by drought conditions and to stabilize the domestic wheat market.

On September 15th, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev warned of a water crisis in Central Asia, stating that drought would cause considerable damage to Kazakhstan's GDP per year by 2050. Additionally, the president stated that the decrease of GDP per year would lead to the emergence of nearly 5 million internal climate migrants. According to Tokayev, Kazakhstan also faces issues of inefficient water use, adding more strain to the country’s water shortage.  

On September 5, publications reported that water shortages in Kazakhstan will only increase with time. The Ministry of Ecology estimated that shortages will continue until 2029. “The forecast water balance for the period up to 2029 shows a reduction in internal river flow resources from 102.3 to 99.4 cubic meters. km by reducing the inflow from neighboring countries from 51.5 to 46.5 cubic meters. km,” the department said.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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